The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured a decisive victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, taking 43.8% of the vote. The result, the strongest ever for the party in a German regional election, has sent shockwaves through Berlin and Brussels, raising questions about the durability of the centrist alliances that have shaped European politics for decades.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which leads the federal coalition, slumped to 17.2%, while its junior partner, the Social Democrats (SPD), managed just 9.3%. The AfD's local leader, Ulrich Siegmund, could become the first far-right state premier in Germany since the Nazi era if the left-wing populist BSW party decides to support or abstain in the vote.
The outcome is a further blow to an already unpopular federal government, but its implications extend well beyond Germany's borders. With key EU states heading to the polls next year, far-right parties across the continent are eager to capitalise on the momentum.
"This result is not an outlier - it is a signal to the rest of Germany and to Europe," René Aust, head of the AfD delegation to the European Parliament, told Euronews. "We are on course to become the country's leading governing party, and I am convinced that at the next European elections we will return to the European Parliament with more than twice our current strength."
A warning for Europe's centrist establishment
While some mainstream politicians sought to downplay the significance of the vote, the result has reignited concerns about the erosion of the political centre. The CDU's Andreas Schwab argued that Saxony-Anhalt is "a small part of Germany, 1 out of 16 regions," and noted that the AfD has "no real power in Berlin, where the great coalition has a clear majority." He predicted the impact in Brussels would be limited to reinforcing the EU's simplification agenda and pushing for a more nationally oriented budget.
Renew Europe's Svenja Hahn echoed that view, insisting that democrats can "only hold up a democratic majority in 2029 by finally delivering on economic growth and prosperity and taking the regulatory burden off of people and businesses."
Yet the deeper worry is structural. Germany's postwar "grand coalition" tradition has long provided a foundation for the centrist consensus at the heart of European integration. The alliance between the centre-right European People's Party (EPP) and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), often with the support of the centrist Renew Europe group, has been the linchpin of European Parliament politics since its creation.
That model is now under strain. A recent projection by Europe Elects suggested that, for the first time, the three centrist forces would fail to secure an absolute majority if European Parliament elections were held today. The rise of extremist parties and the steady erosion of the political centre is calling into question an approach born in Germany and exported to Brussels.
"It is no more about who can speak with whom and how different factions of democratic society can unite," said MEP Sergey Lagodinsky (Germany/Greens-EFA). "It is about how to get their joint share larger, not by stealing the electorate from one another, but by convincing those who are disappointed by all of us, democrats."
Far-right parties eye government power
The AfD's gains across Europe have raised the prospect of far-right parties entering government outright. In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD fell short of a majority to govern alone but could reach one in coalition with the BSW. How much power-sharing traditional parties allow has varied by national context, and whether mainstream forces are willing to ally with the far right remains a key question.
In Italy, Giorgia Meloni has steered her coalition government towards the centre, making her European party, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), increasingly mainstream. As a result, she now faces competition from a new far-right force led by Roberto Vannacci, a former army general turned MEP. In Spain, the centre-right Popular Party has partnered with the hard-right Vox to govern several regions, including Andalusia and Castilla y León, a model some would like to see exported to Brussels.
"In each country, it really depends on how radical the far right is and how much there can be any kind of collaboration. But, in general, collaboration with the far right was not good for us. We have stayed weak," MEP Hildegard Bentele (Germany/EPP) told Euronews.
Within the European Parliament, the EPP group led by Bavarian Manfred Weber has kept a flexible approach to forming variable majorities, at times seeking support from hard-right parties on specific files. While this strategy has strengthened the EPP's negotiating hand and drawn the ire of other centrist forces, moving from case-by-case alignment to a more structural alliance would entail a fundamental reshaping of power-sharing at the EU level. So far, Weber has excluded structured cooperation with far-right forces, though some parties within the EPP have often wished for it.
Elections loom across Europe
In 2027, voters in France, Italy, Poland, Spain, Estonia, Greece, Finland, Malta and Slovenia will all go to the polls in high-stakes national elections. In France, far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is projected to win against any other candidate in the run-off. These upcoming elections will reshape Europe's political landscape ahead of the next EU elections in 2029, which, if current trends hold, could be the first not to hand mainstream parties a governing majority.
"[The Saxony-Anhalt election] It's a very strong warning signal, but we have three years ahead of elections, so we have a lot of time to become stronger again. The warning signal is out. We have to work on our own strengths," Bentele said.
The result has also added to the political risk facing Germany's economy, as the country grapples with structural challenges. As the political instability in Berlin deepens, the far-right's surge could further complicate efforts to address industrial competitiveness and regulatory reform. For Europe, the question is whether the centrist consensus can adapt or whether the continent is entering a new era of fragmented politics.
