On Friday, Giorgia Meloni's right-wing coalition will mark its 1,413th day in office, making it the longest-serving government in Italy's postwar history. The record, which surpasses the tenure of the late Silvio Berlusconi during one of his four stints as prime minister, is a striking achievement for a country once synonymous with political instability.
"It is certainly a point of pride," said Marco Osnato, a prominent lawmaker from Meloni's far-right Brothers of Italy (FdI) party, in an interview with AFP. The milestone is likely to bolster the prime minister's image as Italy prepares for a general election in 2027, according to analysts.
With FdI consistently leading opinion polls, Meloni might appear poised for a repeat of her 2022 victory. However, recent events have complicated her path to re-election, noted Lorenzo Pregliasco of the YouTrend polling institute. This year, a referendum on justice reform ended in defeat for the government, revealing that voters "may be an alternative majority" to the current coalition, Pregliasco said.
A record tempered by unmet promises
The referendum defeat also raised questions about the government's effectiveness. The reform, which aimed to strengthen the prime minister's powers and increase regional autonomy, was one of three flagship coalition pledges that remain unfulfilled. Critics argue that the administration, despite its ample parliamentary majority, has failed to tackle the structural issues that many believe hold Italy back.
"This stability was not capitalised upon," said Chiara Braga, leader of the centre-left Democratic Party's parliamentary group. "It did not lead to any significant improvement in people's living standards or business competitiveness."
Italy's economy is forecast to grow a lacklustre 0.6% in 2026, while real wages have been virtually stagnant since the early 1990s. Unemployment has fallen from above 7% to around 5% over the past four years, but the number of economically inactive people—those who could work but are not looking for a job—remains high.
"This government has primarily sought to survive by doing as little as possible," said Tito Boeri, an economist at Milan's Bocconi University.
Supporters counter that the administration has cut taxes and increased tax revenues, brought fiscal discipline to the highly indebted nation, and won Italy a more prominent role on the global stage at a fraught geopolitical time. "When it comes to foreign policy, Italy has never been so central, particularly in Europe," Osnato said, noting that from a hardening of migration rules to energy policy, Rome is now considered a driving force in Brussels.
Political challenges ahead
Politically, Meloni's coalition risks bleeding voters to Roberto Vannacci, a former general who regularly bashes migrants and LGBTQ+ people. His newly created Futuro Nazionale party polls at around 7% and could emerge as a kingmaker next year. However, support for the ruling alliance, which includes the far-right League of Matteo Salvini and conservative Forza Italia, is buoyed by perennial infighting within the left-leaning opposition and increasing abstentionism, analysts say.
Voter turnout in 2022 was about 64%, a record low, and fell below 50% for European elections in 2024. "A sizeable share of voters is really disappointed and angry," said Giovanni Orsina, a political scientist at Rome's Luiss University. Italy's chronic issues have led many to believe that "no one can solve their problems," he added.
In August, Meloni was loudly booed at a sporting event in Taranto, a southern city home to a giant steel plant plagued by economic and environmental challenges that the government is struggling to keep afloat. Surveys show that the cost of living, a deteriorating public health system, security, and immigration are among Italians' top concerns.
Such trends were in plain sight in Tor Bella Monaca, a working-class eastern suburb of Rome dotted by rundown apartment blocks, cash-for-gold shops, and discount stores. Governed by Meloni's party, the district regularly ranks among those with the lowest voter turnout. "Nothing has changed in Italy over the 45 years I've been on this planet and nothing will," said Maurizio, an IT worker who preferred to give only his first name. He is tempted by Vannacci but will not vote next year, he said, lamenting the lack of a long-term vision for the country.
Others were more upbeat. "People expect to see improvement overnight," said Annamaria, 67, a pensioner and supporter of the prime minister who also declined to give her last name.
As Italy approaches the 2027 vote, the longevity of Meloni's government may be a double-edged sword: a symbol of stability, yet a reminder of the many promises still unfulfilled. The coming months will test whether the coalition can translate its record into electoral success, or whether voters will seek change elsewhere.
