In a coordinated set of statements, the leaders of Scotland's, Wales's and Northern Ireland's main pro-independence parties have declared that their nations' futures lie back inside the European Union. The announcements, made on the same day, mark a deliberate attempt to reframe the constitutional debate around European integration rather than simply around secession from the United Kingdom.
First Minister of Scotland and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), John Swinney, said that an independent Scotland would "seek to rejoin the EU as quickly as possible," citing shared values and economic opportunities. In Cardiff, the leader of Plaid Cymru, Rhun ap Iorwerth, insisted that Wales's "natural place" is within the European family, while in Belfast, Sinn Féin's vice president Michelle O'Neill, who serves as Northern Ireland's First Minister, reiterated her party's long-standing goal of a united Ireland that would automatically resume EU membership.
The three leaders, representing parties from different political traditions—centre-left, social-democratic, and republican—are united in their diagnosis: that the UK's departure from the EU has diminished their nations' influence and prosperity. They argue that the future of these constituent nations is better secured inside the bloc, where they can participate in decision-making on trade, climate, and security.
However, the paths they propose diverge significantly. The SNP has long called for a second independence referendum, but the UK government in London has refused to grant the necessary legal authority. Swinney has suggested that a future UK general election could serve as a "de facto referendum" if the SNP wins a majority of Scottish seats, a tactic that has been debated but not yet tested.
Plaid Cymru, which has historically been more cautious on independence, has recently shifted towards a more explicit pro-independence stance. ap Iorwerth has proposed a "Welsh independence commission" to examine practicalities, but he acknowledges that the immediate priority is to secure a new relationship with the EU, possibly through a bespoke arrangement that would allow Wales to align with EU regulations even while remaining in the UK.
In Northern Ireland, the situation is complicated by the delicate power-sharing arrangements and the legacy of the Good Friday Agreement. Sinn Féin's vision is a united Ireland, which would automatically rejoin the EU, but unionist parties remain firmly opposed. The Northern Ireland Protocol, now replaced by the Windsor Framework, already keeps the region aligned with EU rules for goods, creating a unique hybrid status that some see as a stepping stone.
The statements come at a time when public opinion in Scotland and Wales has shown fluctuating support for independence, with recent polls suggesting a slight majority in favour in Scotland, but a more divided picture in Wales. In Northern Ireland, a majority still favours remaining in the UK, though demographic trends suggest a slow shift.
Political analysts note that the leaders' emphasis on the EU is a strategic move to appeal to voters who may be wary of the economic risks of secession. By framing independence as a route back to the single market and the free movement of people, they hope to broaden their appeal beyond core nationalist supporters.
The UK government has dismissed the calls, reiterating that the union is "stronger together" and that the focus should be on "delivering for the whole of the United Kingdom." A spokesperson for Prime Minister Keir Starmer said there would be no change to the constitutional settlement, and that the government would not entertain "divisive" referendums.
Brussels has remained cautious, with EU officials stating that any future membership application would be considered on its merits, but that the EU respects the constitutional processes of its member states and neighbours. The European Commission has not commented directly on the statements, but diplomats suggest that the EU would welcome a rapprochement with these nations, given the shared interest in stability and cooperation.
Divergent strategies, common goal
The three leaders' joint message masks significant differences in strategy. The SNP is focused on a referendum within the next few years, while Plaid Cymru is exploring incremental steps, and Sinn Féin is working towards a border poll, which the UK government has said it would consider if it believed a majority in Northern Ireland wanted it.
These differences reflect the distinct political cultures and historical contexts of the three nations. Scotland has a strong tradition of civic nationalism, Wales has a more cultural and linguistic identity, and Northern Ireland's politics are still shaped by the sectarian divide.
Despite the obstacles, the leaders' coordinated stance signals a renewed push for European integration. They argue that the challenges of the 21st century—climate change, digital regulation, and geopolitical instability—cannot be addressed alone, and that the EU provides the necessary framework for collective action.
As the UK continues to navigate its post-Brexit future, the question of whether these nations will eventually return to the EU remains one of the most significant unresolved issues in European politics. For now, the leaders have made their position clear: their future belongs back in the bloc.
