Sweden goes to the polls on Sunday in a general election that remains too close to call, with the centre-left opposition led by the Social Democrats holding a narrow but persistent lead over Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's centre-right coalition. The campaign has been dominated by concerns over the welfare state, healthcare, and the broader security environment in Europe following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Opinion polls published in the final week give the four left-leaning parties roughly 50 percent support, against about 47 percent for the four parties on the right, including the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats. That margin has narrowed in recent weeks, but political scientists caution that the right-wing bloc still faces an uphill struggle to overturn the deficit.
“There's still a bit of suspense. But all the polls have for a long time shown a very large lead and it's usually difficult to make up that much ground,” Jan Teorell, a political scientist at Stockholm University, told AFP.
Welfare versus security
The left, led by Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats, has promised to raise taxes on banks and high incomes to fund healthcare, schools, and support for households squeezed by rising costs and growing inequality. Andersson framed the election as a choice about the country's identity: “a Sweden that is more like Sweden, where people have a job and where we can improve our welfare” versus “a completely different country with a government dominated by Sweden Democrats, a far-right party founded by neo-Nazis.”
The Sweden Democrats, polling at around 20 percent, are hoping to enter government for the first time. They have promised the lowest petrol prices in Europe, stricter migration policies, and dental care reform. Their leader, Jimmie Åkesson, has said he is not seeking the prime minister's post this time, but has openly stated his ambition to run for the top job in 2030 or later.
Prime Minister Kristersson, who came to power in 2022 after an unprecedented agreement with the Sweden Democrats, has promised the far-right party cabinet posts, including the migration portfolio, if he is re-elected. That arrangement has been controversial, and the Moderate Party has seen its support slip since taking office.
Security consensus
Security has been a central theme, with Sweden having ended decades of military non-alignment and joined NATO after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The country is now rearming and boosting civil preparedness, and has blamed Moscow for cyberattacks, disinformation, and drone incidents over the Baltic.
Just over a week before the vote, the extremism watchdog Expo revealed that a Sweden Democrat civil servant in parliament had shared pro-Russian propaganda for years. Kristersson reacted sharply, telling the daily Aftonbladet: “We are in the middle of a European war. You can't have people who spread pro-Russian narratives working in parliament.”
On defence and NATO, there is broad consensus between the government and the opposition, and a shift to a left-wing government would not change Sweden's security posture, according to Teorell. “But there would be higher taxes and more investment in the welfare system,” he said.
That prospect has alarmed some business leaders. Jacob Wallenberg, a leading industrialist, told the Financial Times he was “deeply concerned” about the potential impact on Sweden's thriving tech sector.
With the right-wing bloc trailing in the polls and the four left-wing parties ideologically divided, forming a government after Sunday's vote could require thorny negotiations. The outcome remains uncertain, but the stakes are high for both blocs.
