For years, Ukraine and its European partners suspected that Donald Trump harboured a soft spot for Vladimir Putin. Recent events have confirmed those suspicions with a bluntness that has left officials across the continent shaken.
In a rapid succession of moves, the US president has sided with his Russian counterpart on key issues, struck a diesel agreement, eased long-standing sanctions, and appeared to bypass punitive legislation he had signed only a month earlier. His verbal attacks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have also grown sharper, feeding a sense that Washington is shifting its stance in ways that could reshape the war's outcome.
The Kremlin, which has long bet on the eventual fracture of the Western alliance, has seized the moment. It has floated new joint ventures and proposed a trilateral summit involving Putin, Trump, and Chinese President Xi Jinping. For Moscow, whose economy is under strain, such a meeting would confer the great-power status Putin craves. Trump has signalled he is open to the idea.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, sudden restrictions on Starlink—the satellite network controlled by Trump's close ally Elon Musk—and unexplained delays in US-made weapons deliveries have intensified fears that Washington is undermining Kyiv to Moscow's advantage. Ukrainian officials believe these measures are intended to pressure Zelenskyy into accepting terms more favourable to the Kremlin.
European alarm and diplomatic pushback
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas voiced the growing unease in unusually blunt terms before the European Parliament this week. "American negotiators have been trying to push Ukraine into surrender for almost two years," she said. "Why Ukraine hasn't surrendered on Putin's terms is because Europe has been supporting Ukraine."
Her words captured a fear that has haunted Kyiv and its European allies since Trump's re-election: that in his pursuit of a grand deal—one that might earn him a Nobel Peace Prize nomination—he could be prepared to sell Ukraine out. A senior European official, speaking anonymously, described the situation as "terrifying," adding: "Nobody can quite understand Trump's fascination with Putin. He elevates Putin to a point far beyond what he's entitled to—I mean Russia has an economy the size of Italy."
The official's reference to "two property dealers" pointed to US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, both real estate magnates like Trump. Reports that they have floated proposals to release frozen Russian assets and resume Russian gas supplies to Europe as incentives in peace talks have caused consternation across the continent. European governments have rejected both ideas.
Witkoff drew widespread criticism this week after describing Putin as a "humanitarian." Hours later, Russia launched 21 ballistic missiles at Kyiv, three of them carrying cluster-munition warheads designed to maximise civilian casualties. The timing underscored the disconnect between Washington's rhetoric and the reality on the ground.
"The US keeps trying to lure Putin with lucrative deals if he can just get the Ukraine problem out of the way," the official added. "But Putin is already one of the richest men in the world. What he wants is to establish a greater Russia. For Europe, we are simply not built to operate in this kind of ruthless transactional environment."
Midterm politics and strategic uncertainty
Another official, also speaking anonymously, said it was "worrying and frustrating" to hear Trump's pro-Russian tirades, which have been linked to mounting political pressure ahead of next month's midterm elections. Republicans risk losing control of both the House and the Senate as voters grow disillusioned with Trump and inflation bites amid high energy prices.
Trump has sought to deflect blame by pointing to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, even as energy experts identify his war on Iran as the main driver of disruption in global oil markets. "Until the midterms, it's hard to draw any firm conclusions from his statements," the second official said. "It feels like we need to hold our nerve until then. That's obviously much harder for Ukraine in practice. Still, I don't get the sense that they're on the verge of collapse."
A Democratic victory would constrain Trump's domestic agenda, but its impact on his foreign policy is less clear. As his latest moves demonstrate, the president has considerable latitude to reshape the American position on the world stage. Trump's disdain for Europe and affinity for Russia long predate the current electoral cycle.
"There's a clear feeling around the table that it is even more important to support Ukraine," a senior European diplomat said. "Some optimists hope things will improve after the midterms, but I doubt it."
Widening rift over peace terms and military aid
US pressure on Ukraine has been mounting for at least a year. In November 2025, a US-backed 28-point peace proposal—reportedly drafted in Moscow before being submitted to Washington—called for Ukraine to cede territory, limit the size of its armed forces, and permanently renounce NATO membership. European governments quickly closed ranks, seeking to revise proposals they warned would leave Ukraine vulnerable to renewed Russian aggression.
Since then, the divide has widened beyond the terms of a potential peace deal to the military capabilities Ukraine needs to defend itself. Kyiv has accused Washington of delaying deliveries of Patriot interceptor missiles funded by European allies, interrupting intelligence-sharing on incoming Russian ballistic missiles, and restricting access to satellite communications. The White House has denied imposing restrictions for political reasons, and US officials have also denied claims that Witkoff and Kushner threatened to withdraw military and intelligence support unless Kyiv made concessions.
As the situation evolves, European leaders are left to navigate a precarious path: maintaining unity and support for Ukraine while managing a US president whose actions seem increasingly at odds with their own strategic interests. The coming weeks, particularly the midterms, will be critical in determining whether the transatlantic alliance can hold.
