Exit polls from ARD project a commanding victory for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, with the party led by Ulrich Siegmund taking 44.5% of the vote. The centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) trails at 18.5%, followed by Die Linke at 9.5% and the Social Democrats (SPD) at 8.0%. The result, if confirmed, would reshape the political landscape in eastern Germany and send shockwaves through Chancellor Friedrich Merz's federal coalition in Berlin.
More than 1.7 million people were eligible to vote in the state, which has a population of roughly 2.2 million. The election was widely seen as a key test for Merz, whose national government has struggled with internal divisions and weak poll numbers. A strong AfD performance in Saxony-Anhalt could embolden the party ahead of other regional contests and complicate the federal coalition's agenda.
A historic first?
If the AfD manages to form a government, it would be the first far-right party to lead a German state since the end of the Second World War. No far-right party has ever held the office of minister-president in any of Germany's sixteen states. The AfD's rise in the east has been steady for years, but this projection marks its best result yet in a state election.
Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD's lead candidate, campaigned on a platform of stricter immigration controls, opposition to renewable energy mandates, and criticism of the federal government's handling of the economy. He has also called for a more assertive German foreign policy, particularly regarding Russia. His party's success reflects deep frustration among voters in the former East Germany, where economic disparities with the west remain pronounced.
The CDU's poor showing is a blow to the party, which has governed Saxony-Anhalt since 2011. Its candidate, Sven Schulze, conceded that the result was "bitter" and acknowledged that the party had failed to convince voters. The SPD, part of the federal coalition, also suffered losses, while Die Linke, which has its roots in the former East German communist party, managed to hold on to third place with 9.5%.
Despite the AfD's lead, forming a government will be difficult. Other parties have ruled out any coalition with the AfD, a so-called "firewall" that has held at the federal and state levels. The AfD would need an absolute majority or the support of at least one other party to govern, neither of which appears likely. Siegmund has said he is open to talks with all parties, but the CDU, SPD, and Greens have all ruled out cooperation.
The election result is part of a broader trend of far-right gains across Europe. In recent months, similar parties have made advances in France, Italy, and the Netherlands. The AfD's success in Saxony-Anhalt could encourage closer ties with other nationalist movements, as seen in the recent meeting between Jordan Bardella and Nigel Farage in Birmingham. The outcome also highlights the ongoing challenges of integrating eastern Germany, a topic that has been central to the rise of the AfD in the region.
For Chancellor Merz, the result is a warning sign. His coalition has been plagued by infighting over migration and energy policy, and the AfD has capitalised on public discontent. Some analysts argue that the CDU's shift to the right on immigration has not stemmed the AfD's advance, but rather legitimised its rhetoric. Others point to economic factors, such as the decline of traditional industries and the perception that Berlin neglects the east.
The AfD's victory in Saxony-Anhalt is also likely to reignite debate about Germany's political taboos. For decades, mainstream parties have refused to cooperate with the far right, but the AfD's growing strength is testing that consensus. Whether the firewall holds will depend on the willingness of other parties to form coalitions, and on the AfD's ability to moderate its image.
As the final results are counted, attention will turn to the coming weeks of coalition negotiations. The AfD has vowed to fight for a place in government, but without partners, it may be forced to remain in opposition. Still, the message from voters is clear: in Saxony-Anhalt, the far right has become the dominant political force, and Germany's political establishment must reckon with that reality.
