The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has secured a historic victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, and how Chancellor Friedrich Merz's coalition responds could determine the fate of the federal government, according to political scientist Nicolas Spohn.
Final results from Sunday's election in the state of 2.1 million people show the AfD taking 43.8% of the vote, more than double its share five years ago. Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) slumped to 17.2%, its worst result in the state since reunification.
“First of all, it really is a historic victory for the AfD, and it is an earthquake for the rest of the parties,” Spohn, an expert on East German state politics, told European Pulse.
The pro-Kremlin, anti-immigration party's win puts it within reach of power at the state level for the first time since the Second World War. The result has already triggered a political crisis for Merz, who has seen his popularity plummet amid economic stagnation and broken promises.
Ignoring the warning signs
Thorsten Frei, the CDU's parliamentary leader in the Bundestag, has downplayed the national implications of the Saxony-Anhalt result. But Spohn argues that such dismissiveness is precisely what fuels the far-right's rise.
“But this is what frustrates people,” he said. “Turning a blind eye to the warnings of elections like in Saxony-Anhalt could give the AfD more votes.”
Merz's approval ratings have sunk to just 16% nationally, according to a recent YouGov poll. In Saxony-Anhalt, his personal approval is even lower, at just over 9%. Spohn believes this discontent, rather than genuine support for AfD policies, was the decisive factor.
“It is not genuine support for the AfD's agenda, but rather for the idea of doing everything differently,” he explained.
The CDU's failure to deliver on its 2025 election promises, particularly its vow to revive Germany's stagnant economy, has left many voters feeling betrayed. “They promised different things than what they achieved after the elections. The economy is doing worse than before the last election on the national level,” Spohn said.
While some factors, such as the wars in Ukraine and Iran, are beyond Merz's control, their economic consequences are felt keenly by ordinary Germans. “These are issues that Chancellor Merz can't do a lot about, but still, Germans feel this economically,” he added.
East German frustration
Saxony-Anhalt, part of the former German Democratic Republic, has lost a quarter of its population since reunification in 1990 — the largest decline of any German state. Rural areas and young people have been hit hardest, with teacher shortages and poor career prospects driving many to leave.
“What I'm trying to say is that 40% of the voters do not vote for the AfD because of its far-right policies, but rather despite such policies. People in eastern Germany are not more right-wing; they are simply more frustrated,” Spohn said.
The AfD now has momentum heading into regional elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in just under two weeks. Polls show the party leading in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with about 35% support.
Spohn's warning echoes concerns that Merz's communication failures are alienating voters. The chancellor's response to the Saxony-Anhalt result will be closely watched, not just in Germany but across Europe, where the rise of the far-right is a growing concern.
As Germany's economic recovery faces new political risks, the CDU must decide whether to heed the warning from the east or continue down a path that could further entrench the AfD's position.
