The far-right's strong performance in recent German state elections has sent ripples through Rome, where Italy's governing coalition is struggling to present a united front. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, a result that has unsettled Berlin and exposed fault lines among Italy's right-wing leaders.
Forza Italia's leader and foreign minister, Antonio Tajani, described the outcome as "a worrying signal" and "a negative signal," though he cautioned against overreaction. Speaking to Il Messaggero, he noted that the result was "widely expected" and pointed to the region's economic struggles: "That region is the poorest part of Germany, and extremism always takes root where there are the greatest economic difficulties."
Matteo Salvini, leader of the League and deputy prime minister, struck a very different tone. On X, he celebrated the AfD's success as "an extraordinary success, which highlights the strong demand for change, security and jobs." He dismissed concerns, writing: "Fear? Terror? Danger? No, it's called DEMOCRACY. Another Europe is possible."
The two deputy prime ministers are now openly at odds over how to treat a party that opposes arming Ukraine and advocates lifting sanctions on Moscow in exchange for cheaper energy. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has remained silent, leaving Galeazzo Bignami, her party's leader in the Chamber of Deputies, to offer a measured response: "This is neither a positive nor a negative assessment. When the electorate speaks, the outcome of the vote must always be accepted, whatever it is." He added that judging a democratically elected force as undemocratic would be "a prejudiced judgement."
The Vannacci factor and the pro-Russian drift
The AfD's victory has also complicated matters for Meloni regarding Roberto Vannacci, a former general and now MEP who leads the Futuro Nazionale party. Vannacci, who has been dubbed "Russia's Trojan horse" by the Financial Times, celebrated the German result on social media with the cryptic post: "Europe is changing. Nessun dorma." His platform overlaps significantly with the AfD's, including attacks on the EU, calls for forced "remigration," and cuts to aid for Ukraine.
Recent YouTrend polling puts Vannacci's party at 7.9%, ahead of Forza Italia (7.1%) and the League (4.4%). This makes his support potentially crucial for Meloni's re-election prospects, yet his pro-Russian stance clashes with her commitment to Ukraine. Defence minister Guido Crosetto has even appointed former Ukrainian defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov as an adviser on military innovation, underscoring Rome's backing for Kyiv.
The Kremlin has welcomed the AfD's surge. Kirill Dmitriev, a special envoy and head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, wrote on X that the "historic AfD victory humiliates the arrogance, narrow-mindedness, warmongering, ineptitude and hypocrisy of the discredited German governing coalition."
Divisions beyond Italy
Italy's right is not alone in grappling with how to respond to the AfD's rise. The party's success has also deepened splits in France's far-right camp, and the broader European right is increasingly divided over engagement with the AfD.
Forza Italia, as a member of the European People's Party (EPP), firmly supports NATO unity and a "cordon sanitaire" to keep the AfD isolated from mainstream EU politics. Meloni's Brothers of Italy, which sits in the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, takes a broadly similar view. The League, however, has a more complicated history with the AfD. The two parties were once allies in the European Parliament, first in the Europe of Nations and Freedom group and later in Identity and Democracy. That alliance collapsed in May 2024 when the League voted to expel the AfD after its lead candidate, Maximilian Krah, made controversial remarks about the Nazi SS.
These divisions are not merely academic. They reflect deeper questions about the future of Europe's right and its stance on Russia, Ukraine, and the limits of political engagement. As the AfD's influence grows, the pressure on mainstream right-wing parties to define their position will only intensify. The Saxony-Anhalt result has already shaken Germany's centrist consensus, and its reverberations are being felt across the continent.
For Meloni, the challenge is to balance her pro-Ukraine, pro-NATO stance with the domestic political reality of a right-wing electorate that is increasingly sympathetic to Moscow's narrative. The coming months will test whether she can hold her coalition together or whether the AfD's success will further fragment Europe's right.
