As the 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off on Thursday in Mexico City, a Canadian investment research firm has turned its quantitative toolkit from sovereign debt and equity markets to football. BCA Research, based in Montreal, has released its third edition of what it calls "The Most Important of All Unimportant Forecasts," using a two-step statistical model to predict the tournament's outcome.
The model's verdict: France will lift the trophy after beating Portugal in the final. England and Spain, according to the analysis, will be eliminated in the semi-finals.
A Model with a Proven Track Record
BCA's exercise began in 2018, when it correctly predicted France would win that year's final. Four years later, it called Argentina to triumph in a penalty shootout in 2022 — a notably precise forecast given the tournament's unpredictability. The firm applies the same statistical rigour it uses for global markets, avoiding the armchair punditry that often dominates pre-tournament discussion.
The model operates in two stages. The first draws on data from five previous World Cups, incorporating variables such as average player ratings, forward line speed, and a "home advantage dummy" that adds a 24% boost to each host nation's winning probability per match. The second stage uses a separate model calibrated on knockout-stage games from 2006 onward, where club-level synergy and forward experience — measured by matches played, not age — carry the most weight.
BCA also applies a "Winner's curse dummy," imposing a 20% penalty on Argentina's winning probability per match, reflecting the historical tendency of reigning champions to underperform. According to the firm, Spain in 2014 and Germany in 2018 fell victim to this dynamic.
Jérémie Peloso, chief strategist at BCA, told Euronews that the model performs better in the knockout stage than in the group stage, partly due to teams that qualify early and rest players. He cited Tunisia's win over France in the final group match of the 2022 World Cup as an example: "France had already qualified, and the manager decided to leave some of the key players on the bench." Such decisions, he said, make group-stage matches harder to predict because factors beyond team strength come into play.
France Favoured in Tight Knockout Matches
The model places France as the tournament's outright favourite, and the raw numbers support that view. According to Transfermarkt, France fields the most valuable squad at this year's tournament, with a combined player market value of €1.476 billion — more than three times the average across all 48 participating nations. Kylian Mbappé alone is valued at €200 million, accounting for over 13% of that total.
BCA expects Didier Deschamps' side, which the firm notes has enough depth to field two competitive starting line-ups, to beat Spain in a razor-thin semi-final, with France assigned a 52.5% probability of advancing. Peloso explained that "the odds may appear close to a coin toss, but this also reflects the fact that the two teams are both favourites and are currently ranked as the two best nations in the FIFA Rankings." He added: "The differentiating factor is the quality of the French forwards relative to Spain. In the knockout stage, we have found that the experience and quality of forwards tend to be the deciding factor."
In the other semi-final, Portugal would see off England with a 55.2% probability of progressing. The model suggests this result was shifted in Portugal's favour specifically by England manager Thomas Tuchel's decision to omit Cole Palmer, Phil Foden and Harry Maguire from his squad.
The projected final carries significant stakes. For France, victory would make Deschamps only the second coach in history to win the World Cup twice, after Italy's Vittorio Pozzo. For Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo, now 41 and widely expected to be making his final tournament appearance, a win would close the final chapter left unwritten in one of football's most storied careers.
Prediction Markets Partly Diverge
BCA compared its championship probabilities against prediction market Polymarket, noting that its model broadly aligns with market consensus but diverges on some aspects. Notably, BCA assigns Portugal a 16.4% chance of winning the tournament versus Polymarket's 10%, which places the nation only as the fourth most likely to win. On Polymarket, France and Spain are tied in first place with a 16% chance each, and England was third on Tuesday with 11%. BCA also gives slightly higher probabilities to the three host nations — the US, Mexico and Canada — than current Polymarket odds imply. On Kalshi, another prediction market, Spain leads with a 16.5% chance, France is second at 16.3%, and Portugal third at 10.3%.
For the rest of us, the tournament begins in Mexico City on Thursday. The numbers, at least, have been run.
