Brussels is bracing for a contentious session of EU foreign ministers today, as a long-simmering dispute over trade with Israeli settlements threatens to expose deep divisions within the bloc. The European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, has proposed restricting or fully banning EU trade with settlements it deems illegal under international law. But the executive’s insistence that any measures require unanimous approval from all 27 member states has drawn sharp criticism from several capitals, who accuse Brussels of foot-dragging.
“Some might try to muddy the waters, but what we’re talking about here is protecting the integrity of EU policy,” one senior diplomat told Euronews. “Even if it’s just two euros, it’s important that our trade policy is aligned with international law.” The diplomat lamented what they described as “deceptive” tactics by the Commission to delay a decision.
The Commission argues that the issue is a foreign policy matter, requiring unanimity under EU treaties. But a coalition of member states, including France and Sweden, contends that it should be treated as a trade tool, which would allow a vote by qualified majority—requiring support from just 15 countries representing 65% of the EU’s population. Italy has also shown growing willingness to back the ban, raising the possibility that the threshold could be met. For a deeper look at the divisions, see our earlier analysis: EU capitals accuse Commission of foot-dragging on Israeli settlement trade ban.
Ukraine sanctions and humanitarian focus
Before the settlement debate, ministers will attend a breakfast co-hosted by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and Irish Foreign Minister Helen McEntee to discuss the humanitarian situation in Ukraine, with a particular focus on Ukrainian detainees. A joint statement is expected, along with approval of new sanctions on Russian detention facilities.
However, the broader 21st package of sanctions against Russia remains unresolved after an extraordinary meeting of ambassadors on Sunday failed to bridge differences. The clock is ticking: if no deal is reached by 15 July, the price cap on Russian oil will automatically adjust from $44 to as high as $58 per barrel. With Urals crude currently trading around $55, such a move would effectively allow Moscow to sell at higher prices—an outcome Brussels is desperate to avoid. Foreign ministers will attempt to strike a deal today, though some elements, such as an entry ban on Russian soldiers, may be left for later discussions.
In a surprise twist, Austria has revived its request to lift sanctions on investment firm Rasperia, aiming to offset a €2.1 billion loss incurred by Raiffeisen Bank International. The request was widely rejected last year by member states wary of setting a precedent for companies still operating in Russia, and it is unlikely to succeed this time.
Ukraine government reshuffle
Over the weekend, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced plans for a major government reshuffle, including changes to law enforcement leadership. Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko confirmed she would step down, pending parliamentary approval. Rumoured replacements include Sergii Koretskyi, head of state-owned energy company Naftogaz, who recently accompanied Zelenskyy to a NATO summit in Ankara, as well as Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal, Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, and Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha is expected in Brussels today for the Foreign Affairs Council, though his future remains uncertain.
Social media ban for minors gains momentum
Also today, a report commissioned by von der Leyen on the dangers minors face online is due to be unveiled. The study, led by medical researchers Dr Maria Melchior and Prof Dr Jörg M. Fegert, is expected to provide scientific backing for an EU-wide ban on social media for children and young people. Von der Leyen signalled in May that she could unveil such plans as early as this summer, following calls from Spain, Greece, Denmark, and other member states. An EU survey found that young people spend an average of 4.5 hours of screen time per day on school days and 6.1 hours on weekends.
Coalition of the Willing meets in Paris
France is hosting a meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing” today ahead of the Bastille Day parade, with at least 25 heads of state or government, plus von der Leyen and Kallas, expected to attend. The coalition, created in Paris and jointly led with the United Kingdom, now includes 37 countries. Moldova and North Macedonia will participate for the first time. The meeting at the Hôtel des Invalides aims to “strengthen” support for Ukraine, according to French officials.
