Koen Doens, the director-general of the European Commission's department for international partnerships, told an audience at the EIT Raw Materials Summit in Brussels on Wednesday that the global contest for critical raw materials has shifted from a simple matter of mineral access to a struggle for geopolitical power. His remarks come as the European Union confronts its heavy reliance on China for materials essential to clean energy technologies.
“Power will rest in the hands of those that control extraction, refining, processing, transport standards, financing, and ultimately industrial capacity,” Doens said. He argued that in the race toward climate neutrality, minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and graphite now carry the same strategic weight that oil and gas did in the 20th century.
The Belgian official framed strategic autonomy not as a defensive cost but as a vital investment in the EU's long-term economic resilience. “Paying a premium for security today ensures we are not held hostage to supply shocks tomorrow,” he warned. The real challenge, he added, lies in building complete supply chains from mine to market to secure genuine EU strategic autonomy.
EU's Critical Raw Materials Strategy
Under rules adopted in 2024, the EU set domestic targets to boost the availability of critical raw materials by 2030: 10% of extraction, 40% of refining, and 15% of recycling. However, some key materials, such as rare earth metals, are not found in Europe, prompting the bloc to forge 16 partnerships with nations including the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Africa, the United States, and Zambia. These deals fall under the EU's Global Gateway initiative, designed to compete with China's Belt and Road, despite significant budgetary differences.
“We can no longer afford to export risk, import dependency, and hope that the market alone will guarantee security of supply,” Doens said, implicitly referencing China's dominance across the entire critical raw materials supply chain. “Nor can we limit our ambition to securing access to raw materials, raw material mines, while others dominate refining, processing, manufacturing and technology.”
China accounts for 60% of global production of critical raw materials and 90% of refining capacity. According to the European Parliament's research department, the EU depends on Beijing for roughly 90% of its raw materials and 98% of its rare-earth magnets. In recent years, including 2025, Beijing has repeatedly halted or restricted exports of rare earths to the EU.
Proposals to Dismantle China's Dominance
The European Union Institute for Security Studies (EU ISS) has proposed creating an “allied industrial bloc” rather than relying on “trading partners” to reduce exposure to Chinese leverage. The think tank suggests extending an open invitation to non-rival countries that adopt similar protections, focusing on material producers like Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Brazil, and Indonesia, as well as countries with large skilled workforces like India.
Given that China's real strength lies not just in mining but in industrial-scale refining and processing, the EU ISS paper recommends Europe invest heavily in domestic refining infrastructure, even if environmental standards and labor costs make it less competitive in the short term. The study also argues for strategic reserves of critical minerals, akin to oil reserves or military ammunition depots, to guard against sudden embargoes, a Taiwan escalation, or supply collapses.
Perhaps the most contentious idea is that Europe should move faster than democratic systems typically allow. The study criticizes permitting delays, fragmented regulation, and environmental approval processes as incompatible with “geopolitical urgency.”
To speed up domestic extraction, the Commission has proposed reopening recently adopted EU water rules under a “de-risking strategy.” Critical raw materials activities are closely linked to water use and quality. The decision prompted 27 lawmakers to send a letter to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and other Commissioners, warning that “reopening the cornerstone of the Union’s water legislation risks sending the wrong signal to citizens, to investors and to all those working to implement EU law on the ground.” Despite this, the EU executive appears determined to pursue environmental deregulation to boost competitiveness.
As the bloc navigates these challenges, the broader context of global energy costs and economic growth remains relevant. Recent UN forecasts have cut global growth projections amid the Middle East crisis driving energy costs, a factor that could further complicate Europe's transition. Meanwhile, the EU's push for strategic autonomy in critical raw materials echoes its efforts in other sectors, such as the debate over flexible power versus fossil fuel lock-in in the TotalEnergies-EPH gas deal.
