The European Commission has unveiled a comprehensive fertiliser strategy intended to shield Europe’s food supply from the ripple effects of the energy crisis, but the plan has drawn sharp criticism from farming groups who say it fails to deliver the financial relief needed to avert a spike in consumer prices.
At the core of the initiative is an effort to sever the chain reaction that ties natural gas prices to fertiliser shortages and, ultimately, to higher grocery bills. The disruption has been exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for 30 percent of the world’s fertiliser trade and 20 percent of its natural gas supplies. Brussels argues that Europe’s agricultural system has become dangerously exposed to fossil fuel shocks because nitrogen fertiliser production relies overwhelmingly on natural gas.
Fertiliser prices for EU farmers remain well above pre-crisis levels after another sharp increase in early 2026. The volatility is driven by a combination of Russia’s war in Ukraine, trade restrictions, and the ongoing Middle East crisis. A senior Commission official insisted on 18 May that food availability is not currently at risk, noting that farmers had already stocked up on fertilisers last year and that planting is proceeding normally. However, the European Central Bank’s latest forecast predicts that food inflation will stay slightly above its 2 percent target through late 2026.
EU officials warned that the real impact on consumers could become visible within the next six to twelve months, depending on weather and climate conditions. A similar forecast from Rabobank, the Dutch lender, estimated that food price inflation would hit European wallets by Christmas.
Boosting Domestic Production
Pointing to the US-led campaign against Iran, the EU executive has explicitly linked the surge in farm input costs to Europe’s dependence on imported fossil fuels and fertiliser feedstocks. Because fertiliser production depends heavily on natural gas, the chemical industry is being affected by the war’s fallout, exposing a structural weakness in Europe’s agri-food economy.
European Commissioner for Agriculture Christophe Hansen said that Europe needs to step up efforts to “produce more and depend less” on others for the nutrients that sustain the bloc’s agriculture. Brussels intends to mobilise EU budget resources to support farmers facing acute fertiliser costs before the next sowing season, while also encouraging domestic fertiliser manufacturing and alternatives such as bio-based and recycled nutrients. The Commission will also examine stockpiling measures, joint procurement mechanisms, and tighter monitoring of fertiliser pricing.
Under the plan, farmers are set to benefit from emergency EU agriculture funds and advance payments, provided they switch to more sustainable practices like cutting synthetic fertiliser use and embracing bio-based fertilisers. But the agriculture community has expressed disappointment over the lack of concrete financing.
Peter Meedendorp, President of the European Council of Young Farmers (CEJA), said young farmers are “ready to contribute” to the bloc’s agri-resilience but warned the sector cannot go on “carrying rising input costs, geopolitical shocks and investment expectations alone.” He added: “The diagnosis is now increasingly clear. What farmers expect are concrete tools, concrete financing and concrete delivery.”
The industry group Copa Cogeca described the Commission’s plan as a “profound disappointment,” regretting the absence of a “real response” to the challenges faced by farmers. In a statement, the group warned: “If, in the coming weeks and months, prices for the main categories of fertilizers remain at their current levels, the farming crisis will quickly turn into food inflation for European consumers and a food crisis on a global scale.”
Financial Relief for Farmers
Agriculture Commissioner Hansen said that €200 million remains in the bloc’s agricultural major fund’s crisis reserve and expressed intentions to “at least double this amount” to support farmers. The Commission will also provide targeted “exceptional support” to the most affected farmers, Hansen told reporters on Tuesday, and more money will be mobilised under the EU budget “to reinforce agriculture research.” He explained, however, that the precise amount is still under discussion pending political talks between the EU co-legislators, the European Parliament, and the Council.
The plan comes amid broader concerns about Europe’s economic resilience. As Europe faces a hostile economic order, the link between energy and food bills has become a central policy challenge. The Commission’s strategy also retains the carbon border tax, a point of contention that was addressed in a separate analysis of the plan. Meanwhile, farming groups have warned that without adequate support, the crisis could trigger new protests across the continent.
