The European Commission is set to unveil a fertiliser rescue plan on Tuesday, aiming to head off a fresh wave of rural unrest as global market volatility—exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East—sends fertiliser prices soaring. The move comes ahead of critical negotiations on the European Union's agricultural budget for the next seven-year period, a process that has already sparked tensions between farmers, environmentalists, and EU institutions.
After two years of protests that rattled capitals from Brussels to Berlin and Paris, Brussels is increasingly concerned that rising energy and fertiliser costs could reignite anger over the bloc's climate agenda. EU officials worry that high prices will reduce crop yields, shrink food production, and deepen resentment toward green policies, particularly as far-right and populist parties gain ground in rural areas across the continent.
What the Plan Offers—and What It Doesn't
The draft fertiliser plan, obtained by Euronews and subject to minor changes before its official presentation, proposes short-term actions to improve farmers' access to affordable fertilisers. These include emergency EU agriculture funds and advance payments, but only on the condition that farmers adopt more sustainable practices—such as cutting synthetic fertiliser use and switching to bio-based alternatives. No new money is expected; instead, the plan reshuffles existing funds under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).
Christophe Hansen, the European Commissioner for Agriculture, recently noted that €200 million remains in the CAP's crisis reserve and expressed a desire to "at least double this amount" to support farmers. A senior Commission official told reporters on Monday that targeted "exceptional support" would go to the most affected farmers, with additional funds mobilised from the EU budget to reinforce agricultural research. The exact amount, however, remains under discussion.
Environmental groups have criticised the CAP proposal for the 2027–2034 budget, calling it "highly problematic" for failing to boost funding for nature protection and agroecosystems. "Without dedicated funding for nature or agro-ecosystems, how do they expect to create real change for a sector already suffering the consequences of the climate, nature, and pollution crisis?" read a joint statement from four Brussels-based environmental NGOs.
Budget Deadlines and Industry Pushback
The EU's annual agricultural crisis reserve currently stands at least €450 million, designed to help farmers cope with market disturbances, animal diseases, and extreme weather. The CAP fund is split into two parts: a large one supporting active farmers and a smaller one for rural development. But the Commission has proposed dismantling this traditional structure in the next seven-year budget, merging it into a single fund worth €6.3 billion over seven years—a move farmers have resisted.
The industry group Copa Cogeca called the Commission's CAP funding proposal "unacceptable," demanding alternatives that preserve the CAP as a "stand-alone policy with two pillars, a secure and independent budget and inflation-proof funding." EU leaders have set a strict deadline of late 2026 to agree on the total CAP budget for the next seven-year period.
Domestic Production and Dependency
The Commission's plan also aims to boost domestic fertiliser production, which remains 10–15% below pre-war levels following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent surge in gas prices. The bloc's vulnerability became starkly apparent during the 2022 energy crisis, when several fertiliser plants scaled back or shut down due to unprofitable operating conditions.
With global markets now disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a key chokepoint for energy shipments—the Commission notes that domestic EU production has been "highly impacted" by energy prices. Nitrogen fertiliser prices are now 70% above the 2024 average. Commissioner Hansen acknowledged the bloc's limitations: "There are farmers who have to pay to get rid of their farm litter because they're limited in their use of nitrates and nitrogen on their soil. I think that if the crisis continues, we should also, possibly, review the limits that are currently in place."
Nicoló Giacomuzzi-Moore, executive director of the Commission-backed Circular Bio-Base Europe Joint Undertaking, argued that bio-based fertilisers could replace a substantial share of synthetic nutrients. Studies indicate that substituting just 20–40% of synthetic fertiliser use could significantly reduce costs during price spikes while delivering environmental benefits. However, bio-based solutions remain more expensive than traditional fertilisers, and Giacomuzzi-Moore warned that third countries are "investing massively" and ready to compete, potentially driving prices down.
The plan arrives as the EU grapples with broader energy and trade pressures. Recent disruptions have already pushed household gas prices up 6.8% in Brussels and Berlin, adding to the strain on farmers. Meanwhile, the IEA has warned of oil price volatility as global stockpiles drain at a record pace, further complicating the outlook for agricultural inputs.
Whether the Commission's plan can prevent another farm uprising remains uncertain. With no new funds and strict conditions attached, the proposal may do little to satisfy farmers already squeezed by rising costs and regulatory demands. The coming months will test whether Brussels can balance its climate ambitions with the economic realities of European agriculture.
