The military confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran in late February has sent shockwaves through European energy markets, with household gas prices rising sharply across the continent. According to the Household Energy Price Index (HEPI), compiled by Energie-Control Austria, MEKH, and VaasaETT, residential end-user gas prices in EU capitals climbed 6.8% between 2 February and 1 April 2026, from 10.67 euro cents per kWh to 11.40 c€/kWh.
Electricity prices, however, moved in the opposite direction, falling 3.1% on average over the same period, from 26.13 c€/kWh to 25.31 c€/kWh. This divergence reflects what analysts call a structural decoupling between fuel-driven gas markets and electricity markets influenced by seasonal renewable generation and government interventions.
Which capitals saw the steepest gas price increases?
Brussels and Berlin bore the brunt of the gas price surge, with increases of 28.8% and 28.6% respectively. Athens followed closely at 21.3%. Other capitals with double-digit rises included Vienna (16.9%), Amsterdam (14.8%), and Rome (10.9%). Bucharest (8.9%), Riga (8.7%), London (8.6%), Paris (7.9%), and Tallinn (7.2%) all exceeded the EU average.
In contrast, Madrid recorded the largest decline in gas prices at 7.9%, followed by Ljubljana (4%) and Warsaw (3.5%). These reductions were partly due to fiscal measures such as energy tax or VAT cuts implemented by national governments.
“The ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East fundamentally constitutes a fuel supply shock. As a result, the direct impact on European gas supply, and consequently on retail gas prices, is more pronounced compared to the electricity markets,” said Ioannis Korras, senior energy market analyst at VaasaETT.
Electricity prices fall, but not everywhere
While average electricity prices declined, the picture varied widely across the continent. Tallinn saw the largest drop at 19%, followed by Copenhagen (15.9%), Stockholm (15.2%), and Ljubljana (15%). Helsinki (11.9%), Riga (11.6%), and Madrid (10.9%) also recorded declines above 10%.
Korras noted that spring is a transitional period with increasing renewable generation and moderate demand, allowing markets such as the Nordics and Iberia to benefit from price reductions. “This seasonal dynamic effectively demonstrates a degree of decoupling from fuel-driven price pressures,” he added.
However, Rome experienced the highest electricity price increase at 7.9%, with Dublin (5.7%), Lisbon (5.4%), and Athens (3.3%) also seeing rises. Markets with a higher share of gas-fired generation—particularly Italy, Ireland, and Greece—tend to experience stronger wholesale electricity price increases, which then feed into household bills.
Who pays the most after the crisis?
As of early April, household electricity prices varied dramatically across European capitals. Bern (39.1 c€/kWh), Brussels (39 c€/kWh), Dublin (38.5 c€/kWh), Berlin (38.4 c€/kWh), Prague (36.3 c€/kWh), and London (35.8 c€/kWh) topped the list. The EU average stood at 25.3 c€/kWh. At the cheap end, Kyiv (8.5 c€/kWh), Budapest (9.6 c€/kWh), Podgorica (11.3 c€/kWh), and Belgrade (11.6 c€/kWh) offered the lowest prices.
For gas, the range was even starker: from 1.6 c€/kWh in Kyiv to 35.8 c€/kWh in Stockholm. Amsterdam (20.3 c€/kWh), Bern (15.7 c€/kWh), Vienna (15.1 c€/kWh), Rome (14.9 c€/kWh), and Lisbon (14.1 c€/kWh) followed Stockholm at the high end. Budapest (2.7 c€/kWh), Belgrade (4.6 c€/kWh), and Zagreb (4.6 c€/kWh) offered the cheapest gas.
“The divergence between electricity and gas price movements in April highlights a notable ‘structural decoupling’ across European markets, driven by differences in fuel mix and government intervention,” Korras said. “While gas prices were mainly driven by global supply constraints and geopolitical risk, electricity markets were also influenced by local generation trends and policies.”
The crisis has reignited debates about Europe’s energy security and the need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. As EU energy ministers prepare to discuss domestic gas drilling amid price and security pressures, the data underscores the uneven impact of geopolitical shocks on European households. For more on the broader energy policy response, see our coverage of EU Energy Ministers to Debate Domestic Gas Drilling Amid Price and Security Pressures.
