As the 2026 FIFA World Cup prepares to return to North America for the first time since 1994, a new analysis from World Weather Attribution (WWA) warns that climate change has significantly increased the risk of hazardous heat for players and spectators. The tournament, spanning 16 cities across Canada, the United States, and Mexico, will face conditions far more extreme than those of three decades ago.
Dr Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at Imperial College London and co-founder of WWA, notes that half of all human-induced climate change has occurred since the 1994 World Cup. The United States has just recorded its hottest 12-month period on record, raising particular concerns for the open-air stadiums that will host matches.
Heat Stress Could Affect a Quarter of Matches
According to the WWA report, temperatures are expected to exceed 26°C Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) for roughly a quarter of the games. WBGT is a comprehensive measure that accounts for air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and sunlight, providing a more accurate assessment of heat stress on the human body.
Dr Chris Mullington, a consultant anaesthetist at Imperial College London, explains that high humidity reduces sweat evaporation, limiting the body's primary cooling mechanism. At 26°C WBGT, heat stress is considered moderate to high, particularly during strenuous activity like professional football, and can impair player performance.
Organisers have introduced mandatory three-minute hydration breaks midway through each half, splitting matches into quarters. However, the report warns that around five games could see temperatures reach 28°C WBGT, a level that FIFPRO, the global union for professional football players, considers unsafe and recommends postponement. FIFA's official regulations only consider postponement at WBGT levels above 32°C.
Dr Mullington adds that above 28°C, the risk of serious heat illness becomes more concerning, not only for players but also for the hundreds of thousands of fans in stadiums and outdoor fan festivals. Heat stroke, the most severe form of heat illness, is life-threatening, with older people and those with pre-existing conditions particularly vulnerable.
High-Risk Venues and the Final
Several stadiums without air conditioning are at heightened risk. New York's open-air MetLife Stadium, which will host the World Cup Final, has seen its risk of heat-related disruption increase by up to 50 percent since 1994. Miami Stadium faces a near certainty of exceeding 26°C WBGT and will host a quarter-final and the bronze final.
Kansas City Stadium, despite later kickoff times, remains dangerously exposed. The Netherlands versus Tunisia match, for example, has a 7 percent chance of exceeding 28°C WBGT and a 25 percent chance of exceeding 26°C, even with a 6pm start. Philadelphia Stadium, hosting a knockout-stage fixture on American Independence Day, and Dallas, Texas, where fans outside the air-conditioned AT&T Stadium could face near-certain temperatures above 28°C WBGT, are also flagged.
The WWA report warns that without substantial adaptation measures, such as widespread access to air conditioning, staging football matches during the northern hemisphere summer will become increasingly dangerous. Dr Otto emphasises that the risk of the World Cup Final itself being played in cancellation-level heat should serve as a wake-up call.
This analysis comes as Europe also grapples with rising heat-related health risks. Spain's climate shelters offer a model for the continent as heat deaths mount, highlighting the need for cross-border preparedness. Meanwhile, the EU has strengthened cross-border health protocols following a hantavirus outbreak, underscoring the broader public health challenges posed by a warming planet.
The findings also resonate with global energy security concerns. As the IEA warns of oil price volatility amid record stockpile drains, the reliance on fossil fuels remains a key driver of climate change. The report calls on FIFA and fans to recognise that no aspect of society is untouched by the changing climate.
