The escalating crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is forcing global shipping companies to redraw trade routes, exposing the fragility of supply chains that have long relied on predictable maritime passage. For European ports and industries dependent on Gulf oil and containerised goods, the disruption is not a temporary shock but a structural challenge that demands a fundamental rethink of how goods move across the continent.
Unlike the Red Sea, where vessels could divert via the Cape of Good Hope, the Strait of Hormuz offers no such alternative. Any cargo destined for Gulf economies must still traverse the narrow waterway, leaving carriers like Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), and Hapag-Lloyd with few options beyond operational workarounds. These measures, while ensuring some continuity, come at a steep cost.
Operational Workarounds and Rising Costs
“This is a natural and expected development, and it has been happening since day one of the disruption,” said Maha Raad, shipping expert and partner at Strategy& Middle East, part of PricewaterhouseCoopers. “But it is more than a simple rerouting. It reflects a deeper redesign of maritime networks around security, reliability, and effective corridor control.”
Maersk has suspended most vessel crossings through Hormuz, rerouting key Middle East services around the Cape of Good Hope and relying on transhipment hubs like Salalah Port. Hapag-Lloyd introduced revised feed-based networks that bypass direct Arabian Gulf calls, while MSC launched a new Europe-Red Sea-Middle East service, leveraging ports such as Aqaba, King Abdullah, and Jeddah. From these hubs, smaller feeder vessels—more flexible in responding to changes—complete the final leg into other ports.
“The key question is not only which alternative port can receive the cargo, but which end-to-end corridor can operate at scale,” Raad explained. “That means deploying the right vessel and feeder capacity, selecting routes that balance safety, cost, and transit time, ensuring port and yard capacity, and coordinating inland movement, customs, trucking, rail and storage.”
These workarounds, however, are far from a long-term strategy. “Transit times increase, fuel costs rise, insurance premiums remain elevated, and pressure builds across ports and logistics infrastructure elsewhere in the supply chain,” said Christopher Long, head of intelligence and compliance at the Neptune P2P Group. The former British naval officer emphasised that maintaining continuity while ensuring the safety of vessels, crew, and cargo is a key challenge.
Limited Military and Diplomatic Responses
Efforts to stabilise the strait militarily have had limited effect. The Trump administration’s “Project Freedom” initiative, which escorted a few vessels safely through the waterway, has been paused amid diplomatic efforts to reach a peace deal with Iran. Long noted that decisions cannot be based solely on formal declarations of war or peace. “Even when de-escalation efforts are underway, shipping companies still have to account for the possibility of drone attacks, vessel interference, electronic disruption, sea mines or asymmetric incidents targeting commercial traffic.”
The lack of multilateral action is also striking. “Multilateral organisations such as the UN generally operate through consensus-building and diplomatic mechanisms rather than direct operational enforcement,” Long said. “In situations where major powers hold differing positions on escalation, intervention or military presence, achieving coordinated international action can become extremely difficult.”
Insurance premiums covering war risks for ships transiting through Hormuz have surged, making passage increasingly unfeasible from both a financial and human cost perspective. The crisis is also reshaping competition among Gulf states, forcing policymakers to rethink resilience strategies. Rather than competing through standalone ports, countries are increasingly positioning themselves as integrated logistics corridors connected by ports, rail, road, and industrial zones.
Accelerating a Structural Shift
Industry experts see a silver lining. “The disruption is accelerating a necessary shift from lean, linear supply chains to more flexible and networked ones,” Raad said. “Global trade can no longer rely on a single ‘optimal’ route. Critical corridors have become strategic assets.”
Long added: “The industry is learning that resilience must now be built into the architecture of global trade itself, as geopolitical volatility continues to shape the maritime environment for years to come.”
For European policymakers and businesses, the implications are clear. The crisis underscores the need to diversify energy sources and trade routes, as highlighted by the disruption to bunker fuel supply that threatens shipping costs. Even if a peace deal restores safe passage through Hormuz, the disruption will linger. Weeks of suspended trips, diverted cargo, and stress on alternative ports have already reshaped the global trade map. The question is whether Europe can adapt quickly enough to a world where no single route can be taken for granted.
