A video shared by British far-right activist Tommy Robinson, viewed nearly 700,000 times, claims that almost all of Ireland's population growth last year was driven by foreigners. The claim, which lacks cited sources, has sparked debate across Europe as fertility rates plummet and migration reshapes demographics.
According to Ireland's Central Statistics Office (CSO), the short answer is false—but the reality is not far off. Migration does account for the majority of population growth, but the exact figures tell a more nuanced story.
Births: Irish citizens still in the majority
In the year from April 2025 to April 2026, approximately 70% of all births in Ireland were to Irish citizens. That proportion, however, is declining rapidly—it stood at 76% in 2022. This trend reflects broader shifts across the EU, where births have fallen to record lows.
Meanwhile, net migration into Ireland was around 53,000 non-Irish nationals, representing roughly 72% of the total population increase of nearly 67,000 people. At the same time, more Irish citizens left the country than returned, with a net loss of about 5,000.
Natural increase—the excess of births over deaths—contributed about 19,000 people, or 28% of the growth. So while migration is the dominant factor, it is not the sole driver.
Eurostat's view: migration as the main engine
Eurostat, the EU's statistical office, has classified Ireland as a country where population growth is primarily due to net migration. This pattern is even more pronounced in Spain, Portugal, the UK, and France, where population growth last year was attributed solely to positive net migration.
These figures underscore a continent-wide demographic challenge. Since 2012, deaths have exceeded births in the EU, and last year births hit a record low of 3.46 million. Migration is helping to stave off population decline, but it also fuels political debates about identity and integration.
For Ireland, the data also highlight a broader trend: the country's population is becoming more diverse, with implications for public services, housing, and cultural identity. As Ireland's giving gap shows, the nation is also grappling with social cohesion in a changing landscape.
The viral claim, while exaggerated, taps into real anxieties. But the official numbers offer a more balanced picture: migration is a significant factor, but not the only one. As the EU debates its future, understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers and citizens alike.
