Montenegro's path to European Union membership, the most advanced among current candidate countries, is introducing a new layer of complexity to the already fraught negotiations over the bloc's next long-term budget. The European Commission presented the financial package for Montenegro's accession last month, estimating the cost at €3.2 billion—less than €1 per EU taxpayer, or, as Commission officials put it, less than the price of a coffee.
While the sum is dwarfed by the EU's nearly €2 trillion Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), the implications extend far beyond the numbers. "Montenegro's financial package is set to be controversial, not so much because of the money involved but as a matter of principle," an EU diplomat told Euronews, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic.
A Test Case for Enlargement
EU enlargement has regained momentum after stagnating since Croatia joined in 2013. Commission officials boast that more progress has been made in the last six months than in the past decade. However, this renewed push has also spurred calls to reform the accession process, with several EU capitals proposing new democratic safeguards and gradual integration for hopefuls such as Ukraine. As a result, Montenegro—for which drafting of the accession treaty began a few weeks ago—has become the test case for what the next wave of enlargement will look like.
"Montenegro is a precedent. It should not be, but it inevitably is," said a second diplomat, arguing that member states want their positions in the MFF negotiations reflected in this file. The bone of contention is how to finance the extra costs Montenegro would bring to the EU budget—whether by redistributing existing resources or finding new ones—and what the implications for the bloc's funds might be.
Funding programs reflect the differing political priorities of member states and are a major faultline in the budget negotiations. Southern and eastern European countries push for more money for cohesion and agricultural policies, while northern capitals press to focus on competitiveness and defence. Should Montenegro become an EU country, it would be a "net receiver," taking more from the EU than it contributes. Under the Commission's proposal, a significant part of the cohesion and agricultural funding would come from resources Montenegro was set to receive under the Global Europe Plan, the EU's development aid programme. In other words, as Montenegro stops being eligible for development aid, the money already allocated to it would be redirected to agricultural and regional funding.
The Commission proposes a proportionate increase in funding for areas like defence and competitiveness, aiming "to ensure there is no negative effect on the funding foreseen for EU-27." But the question remains where that extra money should come from. It would require either additional revenue from EU-wide taxes, known as own resources, or higher national contributions from member states. "Net payer" countries such as Germany and the Netherlands, known as the frugals, have been pushing to scale down the overall size of the EU budget to keep national contributions minimal, and are likely to push instead for redistributing existing resources.
While the actual sum may be negligible for national budgets, the question is set to establish a precedent for future accession treaties—whether for countries like Albania and Moldova that are simply smaller, or a far more complex case like Ukraine. The outcome may prove to be more than another power struggle over how money is distributed within the bloc. It could also have a chilling effect on richer countries considering membership, which would be net contributors from the outset. Iceland, in particular, is holding a referendum on whether to reopen EU accession talks at the end of August, after suspending its bid in 2015. As a French minister recently noted, Iceland has "nothing to lose" in EU talks, but the financial precedent set by Montenegro could influence its decision.
The broader context of EU enlargement is also shaped by geopolitical pressures. The advancement of accession talks with Ukraine underscores the urgency of resolving funding mechanisms. Meanwhile, the EU's ability to manage its budget amid competing priorities—from defence to climate action—remains a central challenge. As the Commission prepares its own proposals to regain the initiative on enlargement, Montenegro's case will likely serve as a litmus test for how the bloc balances financial prudence with strategic expansion.
