Montenegro's ambition to become the EU's 28th member by 2028 is facing a critical test. The country, widely seen as the bloc's frontrunner among candidate states, must quickly resolve long-standing bilateral disputes with Croatia or risk derailing its accession timeline.
Brussels had to postpone a planned intergovernmental conference on Tuesday after Croatia reiterated its opposition to closing several negotiating chapters. The delay underscores how unresolved issues from the 1990s conflicts continue to cast a shadow over the region's European integration.
Podgorica has already closed 18 of the 33 negotiating chapters and aims to complete the remaining 15 by the end of the year. However, diplomats familiar with the talks say that while the deadline is still achievable, the window is narrowing fast.
Croatia's demands
Zagreb's conditions include compensation for survivors of wartime camps, cooperation in locating 14 people still missing from the Croatian War of Independence, prosecution of war crimes, and resolution of property claims by Croatian families in Montenegro. Croatia also wants the renaming of a swimming pool named after Zoran Gopčević, a former Yugoslav water polo player linked to the Morinj detention camp, as well as a settlement of the maritime boundary and the return of the school ship Jadran.
In a statement from July, Croatia's Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs said it had reiterated its call for dialogue to address these open issues, stressing that they must be concluded so as not to burden the final phase of the accession process.
Bilateral talks have been ongoing at ministerial level in recent weeks, with support from the European Commission, but no breakthrough has been achieved. As a result, Croatia continues to block the closure of Chapter 14 on transport policy, as well as chapters on foreign and security policy, judiciary and fundamental rights, and justice, freedom and security.
A bilateral meeting is scheduled for early October in Zagreb. If sufficient progress is made, an intergovernmental conference could close further chapters on 12 or 13 October. Officials hope that an agreement between the two foreign ministries could unblock the situation within two months, though not all grievances are equally complex.
“It is just a matter of time,” one official told Euronews, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Both sides need to continue discussing. But these negotiations cannot be time-framed.”
Time, however, is precisely what Montenegro may lack if it is to meet its ambitious two-year timeline, all while trying to maintain momentum ahead of elections in June 2027. The European Commission is wary that the disputes could significantly slow progress for its best-in-class candidate and has been playing a mediating role.
Following an intergovernmental conference in July, Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos sought to reassure that even if Montenegro does not close every chapter this year, it could still join by 2028. But in that case, Podgorica would have to rely on swift ratification by member states, a prospect complicated by upcoming elections in key countries such as France and Spain, where rising right-wing forces tend to be sceptical of enlargement.
The stakes are high not only for Montenegro but for the EU's credibility in the Western Balkans. A successful conclusion of Montenegro's accession would send a strong signal that the bloc's enlargement policy is still viable, especially as other candidates like Albania and North Macedonia watch closely. The coming weeks will be decisive in determining whether Montenegro can overcome this hurdle and stay on track for 2028.
