NATO allies are growing increasingly pessimistic that Ukraine will receive the US-made Patriot interceptor missiles it urgently needs before next week's US midterm elections, amid suspicions that President Donald Trump is using military aid as leverage to push Kyiv toward concessions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said the country is still awaiting approval from US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth for the transfer of additional interceptors. But NATO sources have told European Pulse that the situation remains “unpredictable,” with allies unclear whether the systems will be released and when they might arrive.
The uncertainty comes as Ukraine's air defences struggle to keep pace with Russian attacks, while US interceptor stocks are under growing pressure from the war against Iran.
Russian attacks outpace US production
Zelenskyy said Russia had launched more than 100 ballistic missiles at Kyiv and the surrounding region over the previous two weeks, highlighting the scale of Ukraine's air defence challenge. According to separate Ukrainian estimates, the US produces around 60 to 65 Patriot interceptors a month — fewer than the number of ballistic missiles Russia has launched at Kyiv and the region in just two weeks. That production must also meet demand from other US allies and partners worldwide, including countries in the Middle East and the Gulf.
The shortfall is compounded by the fact that Washington is relying heavily on allies to launch strategic bombers, some of which can carry two dozen 2,000lb bombs to attack Iran. This has led some analysts to suggest the Pentagon may be holding back interceptors for its own potential needs.
Trump pressures Kyiv over Russian oil strikes
The uncertainty over Patriot deliveries comes as Trump pressures Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian diesel refineries, arguing that the attacks are driving up global energy prices and hurting American and European consumers. “We spoke to Mr Zelenskyy about it,” Trump said during a visit to his golf resort in Ireland in September. “There are plenty of other targets. Don't hit diesel fuel. That's hurting the world,” he added.
The US-Israeli war on Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a key shipping route through which around a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies passed — triggered what the International Energy Agency (IEA) described as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. With Trump's approval ratings at record lows ahead of the November 3rd midterms, some analysts believe his demands on Ukraine, including the withholding of Patriot interceptors, are intended to demonstrate action on soaring energy prices. He recently waived punitive sanctions on Russian oil in an attempt to ease the cost to consumers by making more supply available.
“Trump wants to be seen to be doing something about the issues that are making voters unhappy, and one of them is the price of diesel, and that particularly affects farmers and red state voters in the Midwest and the United States,” said Kurt Volker, former US Ambassador to NATO. He thinks it would be a “great story for him to be able to say, I've got Vladimir Putin giving us diesel, and I've got Zelensky to stop attacking the refineries, so 'I'm fighting for you',” Volker added.
Trump “using leverage” against Ukraine
Asked whether there were any indications that the interceptors would be released to Ukraine soon, one NATO source said there was little clarity. “It's so unpredictable,” the source said. “Trump is using as much leverage as he has over Ukraine ahead of the midterms,” the source added. The source suggested that Trump was also seeking to push Kyiv towards a peace deal involving territorial concessions.
Two sources said Washington was frustrated by the lack of progress towards ending Russia's war against Ukraine and wanted the conflict to end as soon as possible. One source described the war as a “stone in the boot” for Washington, but said the US understood it needed to maintain its relationship with NATO allies, including in the context of the war in Iran.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian civilians continue to die as Russia intensifies its missile campaign against the country. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has urged allies to bilaterally send their own Patriot systems given the urgent needs of Ukraine. Greece and Spain are two countries which hold considerable stockpiles of less technically advanced PAC-2 systems, NATO sources say. But neither Athens nor Madrid have heeded the call of Rutte or the alliance to hand over the interceptors.
Ukraine faces interceptor shortage
Ukraine receives US-made weapons through NATO's Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) mechanism, under which allies fund purchases of American military equipment for transfer to Kyiv. Volker says he thinks the delay may also be due to the US needing the supplies to resume heavy fighting against Iran. “It seems to be the case that European countries have purchased Patriot missiles, the anti-missile missiles, and that they have not been delivered to Ukraine yet,” he said. “And there's no information or explanation from the Pentagon about this,” Volker added. “Perhaps they intend to restart the war in Iran and don't know how many Patriot missiles they're going to need for themselves.”
Volker said the prospect of US weapons paid for by European taxpayers being withheld from Ukraine is particularly troubling for European allies, already unsettled by Washington's approach to Moscow. Concerns have been compounded by restrictions affecting Ukraine's access to Starlink satellite internet services and by proposals floated during US-led peace talks that European governments unfreeze Russian assets. Europeans have noted the overtures by US envoy Steve Witkoff to Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing him as a “humanitarian,” as an indication that the US's allegiance is shifting in favour of Moscow.
As the midterms approach, the fate of the Patriot interceptors remains a critical test of Washington's commitment to Ukraine's defence. For European allies, the delay is not just a logistical issue but a signal of deeper uncertainty about the reliability of US support under a second Trump administration. The coming weeks will show whether the systems are finally released, or whether Ukraine is left to face another winter of Russian missile barrages with dwindling ammunition.
