Diplomatic efforts to steady the transatlantic alliance took centre stage in Oslo on Tuesday, where US envoy Steve Witkoff met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders. The encounter appeared to ease some of the friction that has built up between Kyiv and Washington in recent weeks, with Zelenskyy confirming that crucial US early-warning intelligence on Russian ballistic missiles had been restored and that Washington had reaffirmed its commitment to strong security guarantees for Ukraine after the war.
Notably, Witkoff did not stay for the press conference, leaving Zelenskyy and European leaders to speak publicly about the outcome of the talks. Finnish President Alexander Stubb said substantial progress had been made "under the radar" and that the peace process was now "back on track". Whether Moscow shares that assessment remains to be seen.
Witkoff heads to Moscow
Witkoff travels on to St. Petersburg for talks on Wednesday, where he is set to share the proposals tabled by Ukrainian and European negotiators with Russian leaders. He is also expected to push for the release of Stephen Hubbard, a US citizen accused of fighting as a mercenary for Ukraine. The visit follows a series of positive signals from the Oslo meeting, but the gap between Washington and European capitals remains wide.
Just as the peace talks were unfolding in Oslo, the EU’s High Representative Kaja Kallas sharply accused the US of pressuring Ukraine to capitulate on terms exclusively favourable to Vladimir Putin, exposing the anger that Trump’s pro-Russian turn has fuelled across the continent. "American negotiators have been trying to push Ukraine into surrender for already almost two years, one and a half years now," Kallas told the European Parliament. "Ukraine hasn’t surrendered on Putin's terms because Europe has been supporting Ukraine."
This morning, the parliament will hear from Ursula von der Leyen, who has also expressed displeasure, though in less stark terms than Kallas, over Trump’s unilateral decision to ease sanctions on Russia. The European Commission president will reflect on last week’s EU summit and explain next steps to support Ukraine’s fight. Keep an eye on any hints about next sanctions against Moscow.
Europe's reluctant dependence
For all their clamour and all their outrage, Europeans are not yet willing, and perhaps not yet ready, to break away from the US and go their separate ways to pursue an independent peace strategy. The thinking remains that the seat at the negotiating table, as shown in Oslo, must be preserved at all costs. However, a realisation has settled in that the European and American approaches to Russia have become fundamentally different. The gap has not been wider since the start of the war, raising questions on what will happen when the peace process reaches its endgame and allies are called to take joint decisions of exceptional significance.
Jorge Liboreiro explains why Europe refuses to break away from Trump. The pressure on Zelenskyy to make a deal has only intensified, but European leaders are wary of being sidelined in any final settlement.
Hungary blocks EU accession progress
Meanwhile, Hungary on Tuesday blocked the opening of the two remaining negotiating "clusters" in Ukraine’s EU accession bid, catching other EU member states off guard. The Hungarian representative did not provide an explanation, which left the other 26 member states, all of which were ready to move forward, bewildered, according to an EU diplomat who was present during the meeting. The clusters cover connectivity, agriculture and cohesion policy. Ukraine has been paired in its accession bid with Moldova, meaning both countries’ progress are being held back.
Budapest agreed to open the two clusters earlier this month after the Ukrainian Parliament passed a law on minority language education. A Hungarian official declined to comment on the matter. It remains to be seen if Hungary will try to impose additional conditions on Ukraine for the opening of the clusters.
France braces for more protests
In France, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said on Tuesday that a "massive" security operation would be in place during further expected protests on Saturday after cost-of-living demonstrations turned violent across France over the weekend. Speaking to parliament on Tuesday, Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez also announced plans to deploy military forces from Operation Sentinelle to free up police and gendarmes for the expected demonstrations. Nuñez said their mission would be "to replace internal security forces mainly on static guarding duties" in order to "free up police officers and gendarmes to carry out public-order missions."
Operation Sentinelle, launched in January 2015, has 10,000 soldiers deployed across France to defend against potential terrorist attacks. Troops are usually stationed outside sites deemed sensitive, such as places of worship, schools, tourist locations, railway stations and airports. Sentinelle soldiers have previously deployed at events such as the Paris 2024 Olympics and the Paralympic Games. Nuñez added that the aim on Saturday would be for security forces to operate with increased "responsiveness and mobility" in order to deal with "scattered" and "extremely mobile" groups. The damage from last weekend's protests is still being tallied, and insurers are bracing for a hefty bill.
