RIGA — For two days this week, Latvia's capital has been the epicentre of European security debates, as the annual Rīga Conference brought together officials, diplomats and military strategists against a backdrop of pine forests and the Daugava River. The timing was poignant: the conference coincided with the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, a reminder of how quickly the world can shift into new forms of conflict.
Few places grasp the reality of Russian aggression as acutely as the Baltic states. Latvia, a nation of 1.9 million, has endured centuries of foreign domination — from German crusaders to Soviet occupation. Today, its flag, carmine red and white, flies alongside Ukraine's blue and yellow in solidarity. The message is unmistakable: the war in Ukraine is not a distant conflict but a direct threat to Baltic security.
Ukraine's warnings and Europe's response
Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence, used the conference to press his case. In an interview on the margins, he urged Europe to take seriously the wave of hybrid attacks — undersea cable cuts, arson, drones rigged with explosives, and weaponised migration — that have escalated since Russia's full-scale invasion began over four years ago. His warning comes as NATO allies recently thwarted a Russian operation near Norway's Svalbard archipelago, where submarines were training to sabotage undersea cables with a weapon that leaves no trace.
European Commissioner for the Economy Valdis Dombrovskis, a former Latvian prime minister, acknowledged the scale of the challenge. Ukraine has asked allies to plug a €23 billion funding shortfall. "We obviously need to do a proper, detailed assessment, but we understand that the war continues to rage at high intensity. If anything, Russia is intensifying its attacks," Dombrovskis said. "There are still open questions."
In Brussels, more than 100 Members of the European Parliament have called on EU leaders to reopen talks on using Russia's frozen assets to support Ukraine. Meanwhile, the European Commission is expected to announce an additional €6 billion in military aid, including €3.2 billion for US-made Patriot interceptors — a critical need for Ukraine's air defence against Russian ballistic missiles.
Baltic resolve and regional solidarity
For Latvians, the threat is personal. Many have family histories shaped by war and displacement. My own grandfather fled to Australia after World War Two rather than submit to Soviet rule. That legacy explains why Baltic officials speak with such urgency. They see the war in Ukraine as a preview of what could come to their own borders.
The conference also touched on other flashpoints. Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide defended recent European sanctions against Israeli settler violence in the occupied West Bank, rejecting Israeli claims that such measures reward terrorism. "This is a strong signal of support for all those Palestinians who want to have a decent Palestinian state," Eide said. "The Palestinian authority has nothing to do with Hamas, who is actually their enemy."
Back in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to have lunch with the 27 EU ambassadors today, ahead of her State of the European Union speech next week. She has confirmed that social media restrictions for children will be a key theme, but she is known for keeping her cards close to her chest.
As the conference winds down, the message from Riga is clear: Europe must move beyond declarations and deliver concrete support to Ukraine, while shoring up its own defences against hybrid warfare. The Baltic states, having lived through occupation, are not waiting for permission to act.
