Russian security forces are increasingly detaining civilians off the streets and pressuring them to sign military contracts, as reports emerge that the Kremlin is preparing for a new wave of mobilisation for its ongoing war in Ukraine. The human rights project Idite lesom, which helps Russians avoid military service, recorded 14 appeals in mid-August from people who said they had been detained and forced or pressured into signing contracts, either at police stations or military enlistment offices.
"There were only isolated round-ups in July, now we are at a peak," Ivan Chuvilyaev, a representative of the project, told Euronews. The cases span from Novorossiysk on the Black Sea to Birobidzhan near the Chinese border. Men have been detained on the street under the pretext of document checks or for drinking in public, at their workplaces, and on their way home. In the Penza region, cases have been recorded since mid-June, with seven instances of conscript soldiers being forced or pressured to sign contracts with the Russian Defence Ministry.
Recruitment through prisons and financial pressure
Prison authorities are also being used as a recruitment channel. Chuvilyaev said representatives of Russia's Federal Penitentiary Service are searching for potential contract soldiers in remand centres and colonies. Separately, civilian recruiters are targeting people in financial difficulty—such as debtors and the unemployed—through job advertisements, agencies, and personal contacts. "If someone has money problems, the recruiters will find them," he said. "People realise what they have got into only when they are already at the front."
Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, more than 80,000 people have sought advice from Idite lesom, according to the project.
Mobilisation after the elections?
Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have repeatedly said Russian authorities are preparing a new wave of mobilisation after the State Duma elections in September. Western intelligence sources told the Wall Street Journal that mobilisation-preparedness drills—covering accommodation, food supply, and arming of residents—were conducted in the Kaliningrad region last month. Russian state media reported separate exercises in the same region in July, describing them as focused on repelling drone attacks.
Representatives of NGOs helping Russians leave the country have also reported a sharp increase in inquiries since mid-July. "It is reminiscent of the situation in 2022, early 2023," a coordinator of the German human rights initiative inTransit, who asked not to be named, told Euronews. "The threat of mobilisation keeps cropping up like a refrain in a large number of requests. People are afraid that they will not be able to leave later if they do not do it now."
The coordinator added that people under investigation—including on politically motivated charges—who have not yet been placed in remand centres are also reporting pressure from prison service representatives or investigators to sign contracts and go to war, even those under travel bans or house arrest. Now, an increasing number of Russians with no history of work in jobs targeted by the Kremlin, such as journalism, human rights work, or anti-war activism, are considering leaving the country.
Requests to leave for Georgia and Armenia—countries Russians can enter without visas—and subsequent legalisation in the EU on standard grounds have risen sharply. The Unified Register of Military Records, launched in May 2025, has made leaving harder. Once a summons is received and a person is entered into the system, departure becomes significantly more complicated. "There is a high likelihood that their departure will also be restricted from Belarus," the inTransit coordinator said. "Now people understand that, in the event of a new mobilisation wave, they may simply be left with no way to leave and will find themselves locked in."
Moscow bleeding troops
Russian army losses since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 have amounted to approximately 1.4 million troops, according to both Ukraine's General Staff and the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). CSIS further estimates that up to 450,000 have been killed. Experts at the think tank assess that in 2026, Russia has been losing more than 30,000 personnel per month—roughly 3,000 more than the approximately 27,000 new contract soldiers it is recruiting each month. The average life expectancy of a newly recruited Russian soldier on the front line in Ukraine is 20 to 30 minutes, CIA director John Ratcliffe said on 15 July at a defence forum in Pennsylvania.
The Kremlin generally does not fully disclose its losses. Russian officials have denied any plans for mobilisation. "We do not need mass mobilisation at the moment; it is neither planned nor expected," Russia's permanent representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya said on Friday. He added, "As far as I know." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday described the reports as "nonsense," but the growing evidence of forced recruitment suggests otherwise. As Russians withdraw billions from banks amid fears of asset seizures, the spectre of another mobilisation is reshaping daily life and driving many to consider leaving while they still can.
