Exit polls from the Andalusian regional election point to a decisive victory for the conservative Popular Party (PP), with incumbent president Juanma Moreno set to secure an absolute majority for a second term. According to a Sigma Dos survey for Canal Sur, the PP would win between 56 and 59 seats in the regional parliament, comfortably above the 55 needed for a majority. If confirmed, Moreno will govern alone for another four years, avoiding the need for coalition negotiations.
The result would mark a significant setback for the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which is projected to win just 26 to 29 seats—its worst performance in Andalusia since the restoration of democracy. The PSOE candidate, María Jesús Montero, who also serves as Spain's finance minister, appears to have failed to reverse the party's decline in a region it dominated for nearly four decades until 2019.
Political Barometer for Spain
Andalusia, Spain's most populous region with nearly nine million inhabitants, holds broad powers over healthcare, education, and housing. The election is being closely watched as a bellwether ahead of the 2027 general election, particularly amid growing public fatigue with the national government and multiple corruption investigations involving Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's inner circle and former aides.
The far-right Vox party is projected to hold steady with 13 to 15 seats, unchanged from its current 14, but not enough to be decisive. The left-wing Por Andalucía alliance is expected to win around 5 or 6 seats, while the surprise of the night could be Adelante Andalucía, which may increase from 2 seats to between 4 and 5 representatives. These figures remain preliminary, but the trend is clear.
Voter turnout was affected by a delay at three polling stations, which remained open until 20:45. A total of 163,510 Andalusians voted in advance, according to official data. Moreno cast his ballot in Málaga, accompanied by his wife, while Montero voted in Seville, urging citizens to participate: "This is an extremely important day for us to be able to decide our future. Nobody should stay at home."
The PP's national leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, framed the election as a dual opportunity: consolidating conservative governance in Andalusia and strengthening the alternative to Sánchez's government. The PP has not ruled out future deals with Vox, a stance that distinguishes it from some other European conservative parties that maintain a cordon sanitaire around the far right. This dynamic has already played out in regions like Extremadura, Aragón, and Castilla y León.
For Sánchez, the election was a test of his government's resilience. He called for progressive voters to mobilise to prevent Vox from entering the Andalusian government, presenting Montero as a credible alternative. However, the PP has focused its attacks on Montero, linking her to both the central government's management and the corruption cases engulfing the PSOE.
Other candidates also voted, including José Ignacio García of Adelante Andalucía, who cast his ballot in Jerez de la Frontera with his mother. He remarked: "Today we are all equal, we all have the same power and we have to make the most of it."
The election underscores the shifting political landscape in Spain, where the PP has gained ground in traditional socialist strongholds. For a deeper look at the campaign's controversies and strategies, see our earlier analysis: Andalusia Election Campaign Ends with Controversy and Tight Political Calculations.
As Europe faces broader economic and political challenges, the outcome in Andalusia may offer clues about voter sentiment across the continent. The IMF has warned that prolonged conflicts could push Europe into recession, a risk that resonates in a region heavily reliant on agriculture and tourism. For more on these macroeconomic concerns, read IMF Warns Europe Faces Recession Risk if Middle East Conflict Prolongs.
