Apple's quarterly earnings, due Monday evening European time, will mark the first public financial test for John Ternus, who succeeded Tim Cook as chief executive in September. Investors across Europe and beyond will be parsing his comments for signals on product pricing, artificial intelligence ambitions, and the all-important Christmas trading period.
According to LSEG data cited by Reuters, analysts expect revenue to climb nearly 11% year-on-year to $113.39 billion (€101.5 billion), with net profit up about 6% to $29.04 billion (€26 billion). iPhone sales are projected to rise roughly 15% to $56.54 billion (€50.6 billion), a slowdown from the 22% growth seen in the previous quarter. Services revenue, a key profit driver, is forecast to grow almost 10% to $31.56 billion (€28.2 billion) — its weakest pace in over three years.
“It's trick or treat time for new CEO John Ternus who has an opportunity to put his stamp on Apple's AI strategy and future direction,” noted analysts Russ Mould, Danni Hewson, and Dan Coatsworth at AJ Bell.
Foldable iPhone and holiday guidance
Much of the attention will centre on demand for the iPhone Duo, Apple's first foldable device, which went on sale on 23 October — after the reporting period. With a starting price of $1,999 (€1,789) in the United States, the Duo's sales will only appear in the Christmas quarter figures. As the AJ Bell analysts put it: “With only nine days of iPhone 18 Pro sales and no iPhone Duo revenue in the quarter, the market reaction is likely to be driven by Christmas guidance.”
Investors will also be watching for updates on the Duo's reception after some buyers reported cracks and lines along the inner display's central fold, prompting Apple to offer replacements. The company's ability to manage quality issues while scaling production will be a test of its operational resilience.
Memory chip costs and pricing power
A central question is how Apple is absorbing the surge in memory-chip prices. In June, Tim Cook warned that Apple could no longer absorb the increases and would have to raise prices on some products. TechInsights estimated that memory and storage components in the iPhone 18 Pro could cost Apple around $196 (€175), up from roughly $52 (€47) in the iPhone 17 Pro — a jump that significantly pressures profit margins.
European consumers, already grappling with inflation and energy costs, may be sensitive to further price hikes. The company's pricing decisions will be closely watched in markets like Germany, France, and Italy, where smartphone demand has been uneven.
AI strategy and services growth
Ternus's remarks on how Apple intends to integrate AI across its ecosystem could shed light on the future of its services business, which has seen growth decelerate after years of rapid expansion. Apple's relatively restrained AI spending contrasts with the heavy infrastructure investments made by rivals such as Google and Microsoft. Investors will want to know whether Apple plans to catch up or differentiate through on-device intelligence.
The results come on the heels of Apple reclaiming its position as the world's most valuable publicly traded company on Friday, overtaking Nvidia with a market capitalisation of $5.03 trillion (€4.5 trillion). Yet that premium valuation leaves little room for error. “With the shares trading close to all-time highs, Apple's premium valuation means investors will be looking for more than Apple's customary earnings beat,” the AJ Bell analysts cautioned.
For European investors, Apple's performance also carries broader implications. The company's supply chain spans the continent, from chip design in the UK to assembly in central Europe, and its pricing power influences consumer electronics markets across the EU. As European executives warn of a 'perfect storm' in the economy, Apple's results will offer a gauge of high-end consumer confidence.
With the holiday quarter ahead, Ternus's first earnings call will be a defining moment for his leadership. The market will be listening not just for numbers, but for a vision that can sustain Apple's dominance in an increasingly competitive and cost-sensitive environment.
