European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared on Tuesday that a series of drone incursions into Baltic airspace over recent weeks are "not isolated incidents" but part of a coordinated Russian campaign to test European security. Speaking alongside the presidents of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia in Vilnius, she stated: "This is a deliberate strategy from Russia trying to destabilise our democratic societies. When Baltic states are being tested, Europe as a whole is being tested."
The EU chief visited the region to reaffirm solidarity with the three countries, which have recorded at least six airspace violations since the beginning of May. "This is the reality on Europe's eastern border in 2026," von der Leyen added. "Today it's here, tomorrow it will be elsewhere along the eastern border."
Incidents and Responses
One incident in Latvia triggered a political crisis, leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Evika Siliņa and Defence Minister Andris Sprūds after the government failed to respond adequately. In Finland, the interior ministry updated public guidance following a drone incursion near Helsinki, advising citizens to move to interior rooms with solid walls and await further instructions. A major incident in Lithuania last week sent President Gitanas Nausėda and the prime minister underground to bunkers while officials assessed a suspected incursion near the Belarus border.
Nausėda conceded that the skies above the Baltic states "are not sufficiently secure." Estonian President Alar Karis described the violations as attempts to intimidate Europe, calling for a calm, coordinated, and "firm" response. Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs struck a different tone, arguing that the hybrid attempts show "Russia is failing" on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Romanian F-16 fighter jets intercepted a Ukrainian drone over Estonian airspace last week. Ukraine's foreign ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi apologised for the "unintended incident." Romania's Foreign Minister Oana-Silvia Țoiu told Euronews that Russia is responsible for GPS jamming and that many prior incursions originated from Moscow, some carrying explosives. "In two instances they were drones carrying explosives," Țoiu said. "It is totally unacceptable." She added that Romania, along with Baltic states and the eastern flank, is summoning ambassadors to convey that this is a red line.
The Lithuanian incident marked the first time an EU or NATO member state ordered civilians to seek shelter due to a suspected drone incursion. Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas confirmed that appropriate precautions were taken and immediate panic subsided, but questions remain about Europe's ability to stay ahead of Moscow's manoeuvres—especially if drones are Ukrainian in origin, potentially undermining support for Kyiv.
Ondrej Ditrych, a political analyst at the EU's Institute for Security Studies, described a component of psychological warfare: "Russia is intentionally redirecting Ukrainian drones, basically hijacking them, to spook the European population and create a more immediate experience of the risk of war, undermining support for Ukraine."
Romania's top diplomat Țoiu noted that the EU's 20 sanction packages have pressured Moscow's war machine, but no breakthrough for long-term peace has emerged. The bloc continues to face a hybrid threat that tests its eastern flank's resilience.
