VILNIUS — The presidents of Lithuania and Latvia have issued a stark warning that Russia is actively planning attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic states or Poland, citing intelligence reports. Speaking at a joint press conference in Vilnius on Wednesday, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda and his Latvian counterpart Edgars Rinkēvičs said the planning is being directed from the highest levels in Moscow.
“We are talking about energy and transport infrastructure, facilities where damage could disrupt the functioning of the entire energy system,” Nausėda said. “This planning is taking place at the highest level, effectively in Moscow.”
Testing NATO's resolve
Rinkēvičs warned that Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland — all members of both the European Union and NATO — must prepare for provocative actions by Russia as it seeks to probe the alliance's mutual defence commitments. “Even without a total Ukrainian victory, Russia may indirectly test Article 5 and response mechanisms at the alliance and European Union levels,” he said.
The warnings are the latest in a series of alarms from leaders along NATO's eastern flank, who suggest Russia may be trying to test the alliance as the war in Ukraine drags on after more than four years. In late June, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told a press conference that “various types of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months,” calling the situation “very unstable.”
Baltic and Polish officials have already linked Russia to a series of incidents including arson, cyberattacks, and sabotage on railway lines. The Lithuanian president said his country has strengthened protection of its transport and energy infrastructure in response to the threats.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the claims as “just another fresh batch of scare stories designed to keep the brainwashing going and prepare the population for further militarisation.”
Located along the Baltic Sea and bordering Russia and its close ally Belarus, Lithuania has been a key ally to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. The country has provided military aid, hosted Ukrainian refugees, and pushed for tougher EU sanctions on Moscow.
The warnings come as the EU considers new sanctions on Russia, including a potential ban on liquefied natural gas transit. Meanwhile, Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov, further isolating Crimea. The Baltic states have also been at the forefront of efforts to hold Russia accountable for alleged war crimes, including the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war.
Analysts say the Kremlin's strategy appears to be one of calibrated escalation — using hybrid tactics to test NATO's cohesion without triggering a full-blown military confrontation. The Baltic region, with its strategic infrastructure and proximity to Russia, remains a likely target for such operations.
