With diesel prices hovering at historic highs across the European Union and Washington threatening an export ban, Brussels is signalling it may tap strategic fuel reserves in coordination with the International Energy Agency (IEA). The move, which could involve releasing millions of barrels of diesel and crude, is aimed at easing pressure on motorists and businesses, but analysts caution that any relief would be short-lived.
European Commission spokeswoman Anna-Kaisa Itkonen confirmed on Friday that the bloc is ready to work with the IEA on a possible emergency release of fuel stocks. The IEA had earlier indicated it could consider tapping more emergency reserves if supply disruptions worsen. The exact size of a potential release remains unconfirmed, though French officials have floated a figure of 50 million barrels of diesel—roughly 6.7 million tonnes—alongside a similar volume of crude from IEA emergency stocks, according to EU diplomats.
George Shaw, senior insight analyst for distillate markets at Kpler, described the proposed diesel release as substantial. Kpler data shows that the EU and UK imported 24.25 million barrels of diesel from outside the region in September, meaning the proposed release would cover about twice that monthly import volume.
Impact on prices: quick but temporary
Analysts agree that the effect on pump prices would depend on both the volume released and the speed of delivery. Alan Gelder, senior vice-president for refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, said a major release could lower wholesale prices by US$20–30 per barrel, translating to roughly €0.10–0.15 per litre at the pump. Motorists could see changes within days, he added, though Shaw noted that significant market price shifts typically take one to two weeks to reach the forecourt.
However, Gelder stressed that this is a short-term remedy. "Any further release only buys time, as global diesel supply is still below global diesel demand, so we continue to draw on inventories and are vulnerable to the export policies of others (such as the US)," he said.
The pressure on European diesel supplies stems from multiple factors. Russian refineries are not fully operational following drone strikes, while reduced exports of refined products from the Middle East and lower Asian shipments—linked to the US-Iran conflict restricting crude exports from the region—have compounded the shortfall. European refineries are already running near full capacity, leaving little room to boost production. According to Gelder, refinery utilisation across European OECD members is above 80% of nameplate capacity, processing about 11 million barrels of crude per day.
These constraints make Europe heavily reliant on diesel imports, which is why releasing refined products from strategic reserves could be the fastest way to influence prices. But rebuilding those reserves will take time. "Releasing strategic stocks would mean that you are eroding an important buffer," Shaw warned, noting that the duration of the crisis remains uncertain. Replenishing stocks would depend on increased production and exports from the Middle East.
On the size of European countries' strategic reserves, Gelder said that "major countries have 70 to 100 days of cover," with the requirement to hold stocks equivalent to roughly 60 days of inland consumption or 90 days of imports, whichever is greater. "We hence have at least two months of cover if there is no supply and European refineries continue to operate."
The EU has come under pressure from Washington to release strategic reserves "immediately" to help lower global diesel prices. On Friday, Brussels criticised the threatened US diesel export ban, warning it would undermine trust in Washington as a reliable partner. "We fully reject any ban on diesel," the Commission said.
A fresh release would follow the IEA's March agreement to make 400 million barrels of emergency stocks available, with member countries setting their own release timetables. Shaw noted that Middle Eastern diesel exports in September were still more than 50% below their level a year earlier.
For diesel prices to fall sustainably, Gelder argued, "the global refining system needs to ease, which requires a resolution of the US-Iran conflict to enable higher production from Middle East exporting countries, along with greater exports from other suppliers, such as Russia."
As the EU weighs its next move, the debate underscores the fragility of Europe's energy supply chain and the difficult trade-offs between short-term relief and long-term security. The bloc's willingness to tap strategic reserves reflects the severity of the current crisis, but analysts warn that without addressing underlying supply shortfalls, any relief may be fleeting.
