The European Commission has formally identified Spain, Italy, Greece and Cyprus as the EU member states facing the most acute migratory pressure, a designation that will trigger the bloc's solidarity mechanism for relocating asylum seekers in 2027. The assessment, published on Friday, sets the stage for a redistribution exercise that is likely to reignite tensions among member states over how to share responsibility for people arriving at Europe's southern borders.
The decision is based on data from July 2025 to June 2026, a period that includes the dramatic surge of more than 80,000 irregular crossings into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta in late July. That two-day influx exceeded the total number of irregular border crossings recorded across the entire EU during the first half of 2026. However, EU officials stress that the Ceuta episode will not translate into a proportional increase in the number of asylum seekers relocated next year.
“There was a strong reaction [to the crisis], and within a very short period the vast majority of those who entered voluntarily returned to Morocco,” an EU official said, explaining why the numbers are unlikely to spike.
How the solidarity system works
Under the EU's Pact on Migration and Asylum, member states designated as under migratory pressure are entitled to support from the rest of the bloc. That support can take the form of relocating asylum seekers to other countries or financial contributions to offset the burden. The Commission's report also lists 15 states as “at risk of migratory pressure” – including Belgium, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Poland and Finland – which are expected to show solidarity but may see their obligations reassessed to avoid disproportionate demands.
A third category, “facing a significant migratory situation,” includes Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Croatia, Austria and Poland. These countries can request exemptions from their solidarity quotas, subject to Commission certification and approval by other member states.
Alongside the report, the Commission has proposed an “Annual Solidarity Pool” that sets the total number of asylum seekers to be relocated and each country's share, either through relocations or payments. The pool's size has not been made public, but the law requires a minimum of 30,000 relocations and €600 million in financial contributions. Every member state except those under migratory pressure must contribute in proportion to its population and GDP, choosing between relocating people, paying €20,000 per person not relocated, or funding operational support in pressured countries.
EU governments will decide the final pool size and national shares by the end of the year. Last year, however, national governments significantly watered down the Commission's proposal: fewer than 9,000 asylum seekers were actually relocated, against an agreed reference figure of 21,000.
Hungary and Slovakia fall short
The Commission's Annual Asylum and Migration Report also assesses member states' solidarity performance to date, and it flags persistent failures by Hungary and Slovakia. Both countries have refused to pledge any relocations or financial contributions for 2026, a breach of the rules, though the Commission has not launched infringement procedures.
“The system is mandatory. Last year, they did not pledge. We are in contact with both member states to see how we can get respect of this dimension,” an EU official said. Budapest and Bratislava remain opposed to the solidarity mechanism, reflecting the deeply divisive nature of migration in their domestic politics.
Italy, meanwhile, has come under scrutiny after several member states called on Rome in late August to take back asylum seekers who had entered the EU through its borders before moving on to other countries. Under EU rules, the Commission can suspend solidarity towards a country under migratory pressure if it fails to meet its obligations, but an EU official said: “This is not the case for the time being.”
During the reporting period, around 13,000 transfers back were carried out between member states, although the Commission did not provide country-specific data. Eurodac data also suggest that unauthorised movements within the EU fell by around 13%.
The designation of the four Mediterranean countries comes as migration remains a politically explosive issue across the continent. The Italy-Albania migration deal has already tested the limits of EU solidarity, and the new scheme will be watched closely by governments in the north and east that have resisted mandatory quotas. For Spain, the Ceuta crisis has highlighted the vulnerability of its North African enclaves, while Italy and Greece continue to see significant arrivals across the Mediterranean. Cyprus, too, has long argued that its position as an EU frontline state requires more support from Brussels.
The Commission's report is a first step in a process that will culminate in a binding decision by member states. Whether the 2027 pool will meet its ambitious targets remains uncertain, but the mechanism is now firmly in place. As one EU official put it, the system is mandatory – and the coming months will test whether all member states are willing to honour that commitment.
