EU candidate countries are voicing concerns that new safeguards proposed by the European Commission to prevent democratic backsliding after accession could leave them as second-class members, or hand existing member states a powerful tool for political leverage.
The measures, unveiled on Tuesday, include a 15-year probationary period during which new members could lose voting rights if they commit a serious breach of EU values and rules. While the Commission insists the safeguards are temporary and non-discriminatory, candidates fear they could become permanent or be weaponised in bilateral disputes.
Two-tier membership fears
One of the biggest worries among candidate countries is that the safeguards could create a two-tier EU. Countries like the Netherlands and France have pushed for tougher measures, citing the difficulty of tackling democratic backsliding in Hungary under Viktor Orbán.
Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos defended the proposals, saying: "We do not want a two-tier membership to join our union. Countries need to meet very high standards on the rule of law. We need to be sure that after joining, they never fall below those standards again. And this is what we have learned from experiences in the past."
Publicly, candidates have been cautious. Ukraine, Montenegro, Albania, and Moldova are all deeply invested in joining the bloc. But behind closed doors, they express unease, especially over the 15-year probation period. Several had hoped for a shorter timeframe.
Obrad Kesić, head of Bosnia and Herzegovina's mission to the EU, told Euronews: "The Commission stresses that this measure is temporary, but there is a significant risk that it might turn into a permanent status. What happens if the probation period gets repeatedly extended or its expiration blocked?"
Risk of misuse
There is also concern that the safeguards could be used for political purposes, particularly in bilateral disputes with existing member states. Zlatko Vujović, president of the NGO Centre for Monitoring and Research, warned: "It is important that the new safeguards should not be abused. New members should not be blackmailed by old members."
The threshold for suspending voting rights will be crucial. Candidates want clear safeguards against arbitrary action or attempts to pressure a newcomer into abandoning a strategic national interest. Montenegro's ambassador to the EU, Petar Marković, said any assessment of democratic backsliding should rest on objective criteria and systematic breaches.
A Commission official told Euronews that monitoring would be "very active" in fields covered by the new safeguards, complementing expanded rule of law reports and information collected under Article 7 of the EU treaty. The idea is to make triggering easier than under Article 7, which requires unanimity among member states—a hurdle that was evident in Hungary's case when a sympathetic Polish government blocked action.
Under the Commission's proposal, a decision to suspend voting rights would go through unless opposed by a qualified majority of member states. That prompts fears it would be far too easy to act against a newcomer that does not toe the line.
Political bargaining
The proposals are non-binding and are likely to become a major point of contention in the final stages of accession negotiations. "The transitional periods have to be negotiated between the member states and the country that wants to become a member of the EU. When it is negotiated, it will become a part of the accession treaty," Kos said.
That means the safeguards will be tailored to each newcomer's circumstances, but also to its bargaining position and its relations with current member states. Moldova's deputy prime minister for European integration, Cristina Gherasimov, said on Facebook: "Our objective remains full accession to the EU, with equal rights and responsibilities."
The calculation in Brussels is that stronger safeguards could make it easier for enlargement-sceptical countries such as France and the Netherlands to accept new members when ratification comes. There is also an expectation that Montenegro, first in line to join, may set the blueprint for future accession treaties. But its determination to complete the process may leave it with little leverage to resist tougher conditions.
Ukraine's deputy prime minister for European integration, Vsevolod Chentsov, told Euronews: "We are counting on the European Union to ensure that the accession process remains ambitious, credible and predictable, and reflects the progress that Ukraine continues to make. Our starting point remains full integration into the single market, and any transitional arrangements must be justified, proportionate and time-limited."
As the debate unfolds, candidate countries are watching closely, hoping that the safeguards will not undermine the very principles of equality and solidarity that the EU is built upon. The coming months will reveal whether these fears are justified or whether the Commission can strike a balance between protecting the rule of law and ensuring a level playing field for all members.
