Brussels’ ambition to have Europe militarily ready by 2030 is in jeopardy, according to a leaked draft of the European Commission’s work programme for 2027. The document, obtained by Euronews, warns that despite unprecedented political will and a surge in defence spending, the bloc’s end-of-decade goals remain unfulfilled.
“Our external borders, critical infrastructure and the values underpinning our ‘European way’ are increasingly coming under threat,” the paper states, pointing to hybrid attacks as a key concern. The eight-page draft is expected to be formally endorsed and published on Wednesday, setting out the EU executive’s priorities for the coming year.
Persistent capability gaps
The warning echoes the European Defence Agency’s first Annual Defence Readiness Report, which identified persistent shortfalls in Europe’s military capabilities. Even as EU member states invest heavily—€418 billion in 2025 alone—and face the most dangerous security environment since the Cold War, the report concludes that these efforts have yet to translate into deployable, sustainable and interoperable forces.
The Commission’s draft underscores the scale of the challenge. “We therefore need to do more to achieve these goals and to strengthen our resilience, preparedness and capacity to respond rapidly to crises, or worse,” it reads.
Europe’s security predicament has been compounded by Washington’s decision to reduce the American military footprint on the continent, including the withdrawal of strategic enablers, as part of President Donald Trump’s force posture review. This has left European allies to fill the gap—a task that could cost up to €500 billion, according to EU Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius.
Proposed solutions and divisions
To address these shortfalls, the Commission plans to create a new European Instrument for Strategic Enablers, covering critical assets such as strategic transport, air-to-air refuelling, space and cyber defence. The draft also reiterates support for Ursula von der Leyen’s proposals from her State of the European Union speech in Strasbourg, including a European Security Emergency Protocol to enable a swift collective response when a member state faces a direct threat.
“To address the evolving nature of the many threats to Europe’s security, the EU should set up a European Security Emergency Protocol, helping enable member states facing a direct and credible threat to benefit from a swift and common European response,” the document states. It also floats the idea of a European Security Council with the bloc’s closest partners.
However, the proposed protocol—which von der Leyen has likened to NATO’s Article 4—has not received unanimous support among the 27 member states. The initiative was prompted by a series of hybrid incidents, from an explosive-laden drone found near sensitive Ukrainian cargo at a German airport to commercial vessels sinking in the Black Sea after drone attacks. A spate of drone incursions along Europe’s eastern flank has also led NATO to establish its multi-domain Eastern Sentry defence programme.
Despite a sixfold increase in EU investment in counter-drone technology between 2024 and 2025, only a third of EU counter-drone programmes are expected to deliver by 2030, according to the leaked draft.
Ukraine remains a priority
Support for Ukraine continues to be a central pillar of the Commission’s agenda. “We will continue investing in and boosting our defence capabilities, notably in the field of air and missile defence, drone and counter-drone systems and ammunition,” the work programme states. Kyiv is also set to channel €1 billion of an EU loan into joint defence projects, as part of deeper cooperation.
The Commission’s plans come as European allies, including the UK and Germany, are pursuing closer military collaboration, such as joint development of military AI by 2027. Yet the gap between political ambition and operational reality remains wide, and the 2030 deadline—identified by intelligence services as a potential moment when Russia could test NATO—looms large.
As the EU seeks to bolster its own strategic enablers, the question is whether the political will and financial commitments can be translated into tangible capabilities in time. The leaked work programme suggests that, for now, the answer is far from certain.
