European Union diplomats are working against the clock to finalise a fresh round of sanctions on Russia before a 15 July deadline that would otherwise trigger an automatic and politically damaging revision of the price cap on Russian oil. Under current rules, the cap — set at $44.10 per barrel — must be adjusted every six months to stay 15 percent below the average market price. With Russian crude prices rising sharply after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the next revision would push the ceiling to roughly $58 per barrel, giving Moscow additional revenue at a time when its economy is under strain and Ukrainian forces are gaining battlefield momentum.
The European Commission has proposed postponing the review until January 2027 to keep the cap at its current level. But Greece, Malta, and Cyprus — countries with large maritime sectors — have raised objections, arguing that any change should be coordinated with G7 partners. “The oil price cap was introduced by the G7 not only to reduce Russia's revenues from fossil fuel exports but also to preserve stability in global energy markets,” a diplomat told European Pulse. “Any adjustment to the automatic mechanism should therefore be carefully calibrated in coordination with our G7 partners.”
Cod, LNG, and Patriarch Kirill: the sticking points
The oil cap is part of a broader sanctions package that requires unanimity among all 27 member states. A meeting of EU ambassadors on Wednesday failed to reach consensus, and another is scheduled for Friday afternoon. Some diplomats have floated the idea of an emergency session on Sunday to wrap up the package before the deadline. “We're close,” a second diplomat said. “I hope for a final discussion on Friday.”
Several issues remain unresolved. Portugal and Germany have voiced serious concerns about a proposed ban on Russian cod and pollack, respectively, because both countries are major buyers of these species and their local industries risk disproportionate disruption. In Portugal, the matter is especially sensitive: cod — bacalhau — is the national dish, with a tradition spanning centuries and supporting a lucrative ecosystem. Germany has found a solution for pollack, but Portugal continues to search for a way to reduce imports more gradually and mitigate supply chain disruption.
A prohibition on selling LNG tankers to Russia and allowing the transit of Russian LNG through EU waters is also proving tricky. An ambitious entry ban on Russian soldiers has been narrowed down to short-stay visas and individuals who have taken direct part in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, after France and Italy resisted broader measures. For more on that compromise, see EU Scales Back Visa Ban for Russian Combatants After French and Italian Objections.
The most formidable obstacle, however, is Bulgaria. The country, which recently switched governments, remains staunchly opposed to applying sanctions on Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, and Vagit Alekperov, a billionaire oligarch linked to Lukoil. Sofia objects to blacklisting Kirill on religious grounds and Alekperov over a €3 billion compensation claim that Lukoil has filed against the Bulgarian state. Prime Minister Rumen Radev has drawn a red line on both names. Diplomats expect them to be eventually dropped to secure unanimity.
If ambassadors fail to agree on the full package, they have the option of splitting it up to push through the price cap — the most urgent measure — and leave the most contentious elements for later discussions. The clock is ticking, and the stakes are high: a failure to act would hand the Kremlin a financial lifeline at a critical juncture in the war.
