The European Commission is expected to make a final call on whether to maintain or scrap its 2021 ban on new oil and gas exploration in the Arctic during a weekly meeting of the bloc's 27 commissioners in October, according to two EU officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The decision comes as the EU revises its Arctic strategy amid an energy crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil and gas trade. The bloc is also facing heightened competition in the region from Russia and China, and renewed US interest in Greenland.
Energy security vs. climate commitments
The 2021 strategy took a firm stance against new drilling, declaring a commitment to ensure that "oil, coal, and gas stay in the ground." That position was backed by Germany, Sweden, and Finland, while Denmark had to balance its green ambitions with the autonomy of Greenland, which controls its own vast mineral resources.
Now, the calculus has shifted. The International Energy Agency's chief, Fatih Birol, has urged Brussels to reconsider the ban, citing security of supply. Estimates suggest the US-led conflict with Iran cost the EU an extra €60 billion in imported fossil fuels during its first 100 days.
Unlike in 2021, the decision is a straightforward yes-or-no question that will be put to the College of Commissioners, the 27 top political leaders who head the EU executive, one official said.
Despite the IEA's plea and strong lobbying from Norway—which holds substantial oil and gas reserves in the Barents Sea—"the most likely is that the EU position remains the same," a second EU official told Euronews.
However, the strategy is non-binding, meaning the final say rests with member states. "Many member states which are not Arctic countries have been extremely interested in the strategy," the first official said.
Paal Frisvold, coordinator of the NGO Alliance to Preserve the Moratorium on Oil Drilling in the Arctic, argued that even without legal teeth, the political weight of the EU's stance will influence other regions' plans.
Norway's hard line
Norway, the EU's top natural gas supplier and a non-EU country, has made clear it will continue exploring oil and gas regardless of the EU's position. Energy Minister Terje Aasland told Reuters that "continued activity in the Barents Sea serves both Norwegian and European interests."
Frisvold dismissed that view, warning that EU climate policies could lead to "stranded assets." "By 2040, these policies could reduce EU gas demand by around two-thirds. That matters when new discoveries in the northern Barents Sea can take 15–20 years to reach production," he said.
Grunde Almeland, a member of Norway's parliament, the Storting, urged the EU to maintain its opposition. "The Arctic is an extremely vulnerable region, and it is already being heavily affected by climate change. We should protect this unique environment, not open up new areas for fossil fuel extraction," he told Euronews.
Almeland added that expanding Arctic drilling is not a sustainable answer to Europe's long-term energy needs. "Norway should help Europe accelerate the transition to clean energy, rather than push for more drilling in the Arctic."
Economic potential vs. indigenous concerns
The revised strategy is expected to emphasize economic and defence priorities, with the EU seeking a larger geopolitical role in the region. The bloc aims to identify investments that can be co-financed by the EU budget, particularly in critical raw materials—essential for clean tech and defence systems.
Russia and China have stepped up their Arctic presence, including via the "Ice Silk Road," a shipping route linking Chinese ports like Ningbo with European hubs. Meanwhile, US rhetoric about acquiring Greenland has unsettled European capitals, prompting a more security-focused approach.
Indigenous communities in the Arctic remain skeptical of the EU's intentions, fearing that economic interests will overshadow environmental and social protections. The EU's main tool in the region remains a non-binding strategy, leaving Brussels dependent on persuasion, funding, and cooperation with Arctic states.
As the Commission prepares to decide, the outcome will signal whether the EU prioritizes its climate leadership or its immediate energy security. The decision also carries implications for the bloc's broader efforts to secure critical minerals and for its relations with Norway, a key partner in the energy transition.
