Europe's tourism industry is set to expand significantly over the next decade, with accommodation demand projected to rise by nearly a third, according to a new report from the hospitality group Accor. The study, titled “The Changing Face of Europe's Tourism Map to 2036,” predicts that the continent will retain its status as the global leader in travel, driven by a combination of resilient domestic demand, growing intra-European mobility, and a surge in long-haul arrivals from Asia and the Middle East.
Based on data commissioned from Tourism Economics, the report forecasts that overnight stays in European tourist accommodation will increase by 32% between 2026 and 2036, adding 1.6 billion additional nights annually. Hotel accommodation is expected to grow even faster, at 33%. In 2025, Europe welcomed 810 million international visitors—more than any other region—capturing 53% of all global tourist arrivals and generating over €700 billion in international tourism receipts.
Accor attributes this growth to a complex web of factors, including shifting travel flows, infrastructure investment, the emergence of new destinations, and rising international mobility. The group emphasizes that Europe's appeal lies in its diversity: “Few regions can offer such a diverse tourism proposition within a relatively compact geography. From global gateway cities to beach destinations, ski resorts, cultural destinations, national parks, heritage tourism, food tourism or festivals, its enduring interest lies in its infinitely varied mosaic of landscapes, languages and cultures.”
Intra-European travel to dominate arrivals
The report projects that international traveller nights across all accommodation types will rise by 42% over the next decade, outpacing domestic growth, which is expected to increase by 24%. However, the bulk of new arrivals will come from within Europe itself: 77% of all arrivals will be intra-continental. Germany is set to become the strongest source market, accounting for 14% of arrivals, followed by British travellers at 8%, and French and American travellers at 5% each. Dutch travellers round out the top five with 4%.
Looking at specific corridors, Germany is predicted to become the largest source market for both France and Poland by 2036. The Netherlands is expected to lead for Germany, British travellers will dominate arrivals to Spain, and American visitors will be the top market for the United Kingdom. These shifts reflect evolving travel preferences and deeper integration within the continent's travel network.
Emerging hotspots and long-haul growth
While traditional powerhouses like France, the UK, and Germany will remain highly sought after, the report highlights significant growth in emerging destinations. International accommodation nights in Azerbaijan are forecast to surge by 116% over the next decade, with Latvia (83%) and Romania (82%) also seeing substantial increases. These markets are benefiting from improved connectivity, investment in tourism infrastructure, and growing interest in lesser-known European destinations.
Long-haul demand is also set to accelerate. Arrivals from the Middle East are projected to grow by 93% over the next ten years, while Asian arrivals will rise by 88%. Specifically, Saudi visitors to Europe are expected to increase by 55%, and arrivals from China are forecast to jump by a remarkable 138%. This growth is likely to be driven by expanding middle classes, easing visa policies, and enhanced air links.
The report's findings come as Europe's travel sector continues to adapt to post-pandemic realities, with sustainability and digitalisation shaping investment decisions. As the continent looks to maintain its competitive edge, the report suggests that a focus on diverse offerings and emerging markets will be key. For a deeper look at how technology is transforming other sectors, see our coverage of AI uncovering decade-old PHP flaws that disrupted European websites.
Accor's analysis underscores the resilience of European tourism, even as global uncertainties persist. With intra-European travel providing a stable base and long-haul markets expanding, the continent is well-positioned to remain the world's travel powerhouse for years to come. The report also notes that infrastructure investments, such as the potential for electric flights to become bookable within a decade, could further reshape travel patterns across the region.
As Europe's tourism map evolves, destinations from the Atlantic coast to the Black Sea are set to benefit. The report's projections offer a roadmap for policymakers and businesses alike, highlighting where growth will come from and how to prepare for the changing face of travel.
