Allan Lichtman, the American historian best known for his “13 Keys” presidential prediction model, has issued a stark warning about the state of US democracy. In an interview with Euronews, he described Donald Trump as “an aspiring authoritarian” who “governs by executive order,” and said Americans should be “very much prepared” for the president to challenge the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections.
Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University in Washington, DC, has long been a vocal critic of Trump’s approach to the presidency. His comments come as the United States gears up for the 3 November 2026 midterms, when all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate will be contested. With Trump’s approval ratings languishing, Lichtman argues that the president may resort to extraordinary measures if the results go against him.
A president under pressure
“Historically, a president with such poor polling numbers loses about 40 House seats and 6 Senate seats on average,” Lichtman said. He added that the visible enthusiasm for the Democratic Party suggests the midterms could be “a good election” for them. However, he cautioned that a defeat at the polls could push Trump to act even more unilaterally.
“Given a potential loss at the midterms, Trump may govern by executive order even more aggressively than we have seen,” Lichtman warned. He urged those who believe in US democracy to “be even more vigilant” during the final two years of Trump’s term.
The historian’s remarks echo concerns raised by other political analysts, but his reputation gives them added weight. His “13 Keys” model, which has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984, made him a sought-after commentator on US politics. His latest book, The Keys to the White House, outlines the factors he believes determine electoral outcomes.
Lichtman’s warning about election subversion is not hypothetical. In 2020, Trump refused to concede defeat and launched a series of legal challenges, culminating in the 6 January attack on the US Capitol. Since then, he has continued to claim, without evidence, that the 2020 election was stolen. His allies in state legislatures have passed laws restricting voting access, and his supporters have sought to gain control of election administration.
“The president has shown he is willing to use any means at his disposal to stay in power,” Lichtman said. “That is the mark of an aspiring authoritarian, not a democratic leader.”
The midterms will be a crucial test of American democracy, and the world is watching. European leaders, who have often been at odds with Trump over trade, climate, and security, will be particularly attentive. The outcome could shape US foreign policy for the remainder of his term, including relations with the European Union and NATO.
Lichtman’s advice to Americans is simple: be prepared. “We need to be vigilant, we need to be active, and we need to defend our democratic institutions,” he said. “The next two years will be critical.”
As the election approaches, the international community will be looking for signs of stability. For now, the historian’s words serve as a reminder that democracy cannot be taken for granted, even in the world’s oldest republic.
