In Tel Aviv, supporters of Gadi Eisenkot erupted in cheers as exit polls projected a narrow lead for Israel's opposition bloc over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing camp. The polls, released after voting ended on Tuesday, suggest that neither side has secured an outright majority in the 120-seat Knesset, setting the stage for weeks of coalition negotiations.
The apparent dead heat has injected fresh uncertainty into Israeli politics, with both blocs now courting smaller parties to reach the 61-seat threshold needed to form a government. For Eisenkot, a former chief of staff turned opposition leader, the result marks a significant shift in a political landscape long dominated by Netanyahu.
No clear winner, but a symbolic moment
While the exit polls are preliminary, they represent a symbolic setback for Netanyahu, who has campaigned on security and his handling of the war in Gaza. The prime minister's Likud party is projected to win around 30 seats, while Eisenkot's National Unity party is expected to take roughly 28, according to the main Israeli broadcasters.
“This is a moment of hope,” said one Eisenkot supporter in Tel Aviv's Rabin Square, where hundreds gathered with blue-and-white flags. “We have been waiting for a change, and this is the first step.”
The celebrations, however, are tempered by the reality that neither bloc appears able to command a majority without the support of smaller factions, including ultra-Orthodox parties and the Arab-majority Joint List. Analysts note that the final results could shift as military and absentee ballots are counted.
Coalition arithmetic and the path forward
Netanyahu, who has been in power for over a decade, may still have a viable path to a coalition if he can persuade smaller right-wing parties to join him. But the exit polls suggest that his traditional allies—including the Religious Zionism party and Shas—may not be enough to tip the balance.
Eisenkot, a centrist who has positioned himself as a unifier, has called for a national unity government that could include parties from both blocs. “We are ready to talk to everyone who puts the country first,” he told supporters early Wednesday.
The uncertainty has drawn attention across Europe, where leaders are watching the election closely given Israel's role in the Middle East and the ongoing tensions with Iran. The European perspective on the dead heat underscores the continent's interest in a stable Israeli government.
European reactions and implications
In Brussels, EU officials have remained cautious, awaiting the final results. The bloc has maintained a delicate balance in its relations with Israel, particularly over the Gaza conflict and the humanitarian situation. A change in leadership could shift the tone of EU-Israel dialogue, though analysts say policy continuity is likely on core security issues.
European capitals are also mindful of the broader regional context. The possibility of Netanyahu remaining in power for months as coalition talks drag on, even as tensions with Iran rise, is a scenario that European diplomats are preparing for.
Meanwhile, the election has also resonated in European public opinion, with protests and vigils held in several cities. The families of those killed on October 7 have been a poignant presence, reminding voters of the human cost of the conflict.
What happens next
With no clear winner, President Isaac Herzog is expected to task the leader most likely to form a coalition—likely Netanyahu, given his larger bloc—with the mandate. If he fails, the mandate could pass to Eisenkot, or the country could face a fifth election in under four years.
The final results are expected within days, and the coming weeks will be dominated by backroom deals and political maneuvering. For now, the celebrations in Tel Aviv reflect a cautious optimism among opposition supporters, even as the country braces for a prolonged period of uncertainty.
As one political analyst put it, “The exit polls are a snapshot, not a verdict. The real battle begins now.”
