Israel's parliamentary election on Tuesday may not deliver a swift change of government, even if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's opponents win more seats. Analysts warn that Netanyahu could remain in office for months as caretaker, with full authority to order military action, while speculation grows over renewed strikes against Iran.
Speaking to Euronews as Israelis cast their ballots, Yossi Mekelberg, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, cautioned that a caretaker government would retain substantial powers, including the ability to authorise military operations. "There is no new government in Israel the day after the election," he said, adding that this makes the situation "more volatile and more dangerous."
The vote, Israel's first since the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023, comes after three years of war, deepening domestic divisions, and mounting demands for accountability over the security failures that preceded the assault. It is widely seen as a referendum on Israel's longest-serving prime minister, but final opinion polls suggest neither Netanyahu's coalition nor the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot is assured of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset.
Forming a government could take weeks or months, during which Netanyahu would remain in office, even if his opponents secured a parliamentary majority. The prolonged uncertainty raises questions about who will make critical security decisions amid heightened regional tensions, and whether a change of government could alter Israel's course.
Iran and the uncertainty after the vote
The election comes just one week before the US midterms on 3 November, amid speculation that Washington and Israel could consider further military action against Iran following their recent campaign. Mekelberg suggested that political developments in both countries could influence the timing of any renewed confrontation. "It's also a week after the election in Israel, the midterm in the United States, and between the two it can determine whether the war in Iran resumed or not," he said.
An opposition-led government might reconsider Israel's reliance on military force in dealing with Tehran, Mekelberg argued, while also questioning whether Netanyahu's political interests could influence future military decisions. "I think we're entitled to be suspicious of the real motivation of Netanyahu, because his policies are very much intertwined with his corruption trial and retaining power," he said. "So creating a crisis is not beyond the realm of possibility, including with Iran."
7 October and the demand for accountability
The election has also brought renewed scrutiny of the failures surrounding the 7 October attacks, which killed around 1,200 people and saw 251 taken hostage. Three years later, Israel has yet to establish an independent state commission of inquiry into how Hamas-led militants breached its defences and carried out the assault. Netanyahu's government has resisted a conventional state commission, whose members would be appointed by the president of the Supreme Court, favouring an alternative mechanism that critics argue would lack sufficient independence.
For Mekelberg, the issue raises fundamental questions about democratic accountability. "The one demand that unites all the opposition, and I suspect mainly from the coalition as well, or those who support the coalition, it's a state commission of inquiry," he told Euronews. He argued that an independent investigation was essential not only to establish responsibility but also to prevent similar failures. "The more the government rejects the idea, the more people are suspicious that they have something to hide," he said.
Could a new government change Israel's regional policies?
A change of government could also affect Israel's approach towards Gaza, the occupied West Bank, and neighbouring Lebanon. Mekelberg suggested that an opposition-led administration might cooperate more closely with international efforts concerning Gaza and pursue negotiations with Lebanon over security arrangements. Much would depend on the next coalition's composition, including whether parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel were involved.
Although opposition parties share a desire to replace Netanyahu, they remain divided over Palestinian statehood and the future of Israel's occupation of Palestinian territory. "A two-state solution is not going to happen overnight," Mekelberg cautioned. Instead, he suggested that meaningful change would require steps towards easing the conditions of occupation and creating a path towards a negotiated settlement.
The election's outcome is being watched closely across Europe, where leaders are concerned about regional stability and the potential for further escalation. As the continent's foreign ministries prepare for a possible shift in Israeli policy, the immediate focus remains on the formation of a new government and the security decisions that will be made in the interim. For now, the prospect of Netanyahu remaining in power for months, with the authority to act on Iran, keeps European diplomats on edge.
