The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is teetering on collapse, with President Donald Trump declaring it on “massive life support” after rejecting Tehran’s counterproposal to end the conflict. The stalled diplomacy, coupled with recent exchanges of fire, risks plunging the Middle East back into open warfare and prolonging the worldwide energy crisis that has gripped markets since the war began.
Speaking to reporters on Monday, Trump described Iran’s 14-point proposal as “a piece of garbage” that he did not even finish reading. “The ceasefire is on massive life support, where the doctor walks in and says, ‘Sir, your loved one has approximately a one percent chance of living,’” he said, insisting the United States would achieve “complete victory” over Iran. The truce, which has largely halted fighting in the Gulf for over a month, now appears on its last legs.
Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who served as chief negotiator in earlier talks with Washington, responded swiftly. He declared that the country’s armed forces were ready to “teach a lesson for any aggression.” In a post on X, Ghalibaf argued that “there is no alternative” but to accept Iran’s proposal, warning that “any other approach will be completely inconclusive; nothing but one failure after another. The longer they drag their feet, the more American taxpayers will pay for it.”
Deep Divisions Over Nuclear Demands and the Strait of Hormuz
The two sides remain far apart. Trump has demanded a major rollback of Iran’s nuclear activities, while Tehran is pushing for a more limited agreement that would reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade ahead of further negotiations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted the conflict would not end until Iran’s nuclear facilities were destroyed, adding another layer of complexity to the standoff.
Iran’s foreign ministry said its proposal requires the US to recognise Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has effectively closed since the start of the war, allowing only a small number of ships to pass and charging tolls. However, experts argue that such an arrangement would likely violate international law, which guarantees freedom of navigation. The strait was open to international traffic before the conflict, and the proposal is expected to face widespread rejection from the international community.
The broader consequences are already being felt. The world faces a shortage of fertiliser, much of which originates from Gulf ports, threatening food supplies for tens of millions of people. Jorge Moreira da Silva, executive director of the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), warned that there are just a few weeks left to avert a potentially “massive humanitarian crisis.” “We may witness a crisis that will force 45 million more people into hunger and starvation,” he said.
Beyond the immediate military and economic stakes, Iran is also demanding war reparations from the US, the lifting of international sanctions, the unfreezing of Iranian assets held abroad, and an end to the war between Israel and Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah, according to Iranian state TV. The situation in Lebanon remains volatile: Israeli strikes killed 39 people in Lebanon as a ceasefire with Hezbollah unravels, and fighting continues despite a nominal truce. On Tuesday, Israeli strikes on a town in southern Lebanon killed six people and wounded seven others, according to Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency (NNA). The Israeli military also ordered an evacuation of the town of Sohmor in eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa valley.
For European capitals, the crisis presents a direct challenge. The EU has long sought to mediate in the region, and the collapse of the ceasefire could trigger a new wave of instability on Europe’s southern flank, disrupt energy supplies, and exacerbate the global food crisis. The bloc’s foreign policy chief has repeatedly called for restraint, but with Washington and Tehran locked in a bitter standoff, diplomatic room for manoeuvre is shrinking. The coming days will be critical in determining whether the ceasefire can be salvaged or whether the region slides back into full-scale war.
