Kazakhstan's newly created Adilet party appears headed for a commanding victory in the country's first parliamentary election under its revised constitution, according to early exit polls published on election day. The surveys put Adilet's support between 70.7% and 72.3%, which would translate into roughly 109 of the 145 seats in the new unicameral Kurultai.
The election marks a significant shift in Kazakhstan's political architecture. Voters went to the polls on Sunday to elect members of the Kurultai, a single-chamber legislature that replaces the previous bicameral parliament. The change was introduced under a constitutional reform championed by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who has sought to present himself as a moderniser while maintaining tight control over the political system.
Adilet, which was established in April, absorbed Amanat, the country's dominant party for nearly three decades. Amanat, formerly known as Nur Otan, traces its origins to the 1999 electoral campaign that backed ex-president Nursultan Nazarbayev. The merger consolidates the ruling elite's political machinery under a new banner, with Adilet now fielding the largest number of candidates—186 in total.
Speaking after the first exit poll results were released, Adilet chairman Aibek Dadebay thanked voters and emphasised the party's outreach efforts. "During the election campaign, we visited all regions and met with thousands of people across the country. At every meeting, we heard directly about the issues that matter to people, as well as their views and suggestions. Every opinion matters to us. All the proposals we received will be taken into account in our future work," he said.
A new political landscape
The election saw seven parties contesting the Kurultai, with a total of 545 candidates. Under the new rules, independent candidates were barred from running; all seats were allocated through party lists, a departure from the previous system that allowed independents.
According to the first exit poll conducted by the Kazakhstan Institute of Public Development, the Auyl party secured 6.2%, Respublica 5.2%, Ak Zhol 5.1%, and the Nationwide Social Democratic Party (NSDP) 5%. The People's Party of Kazakhstan received 2.8%, while the green-oriented Baitaq party got 0.9%. These results would give Auyl 12 seats, Respublica 9, NSDP 8, and Ak Zhol 7, with the People's Party and Baitaq failing to cross the 5% threshold.
Among the contenders, Ak Zhol and Respublica were seen as the main challengers to Adilet, both courting the business community. Ak Zhol, founded in 2002, advocates political and economic reforms, supports entrepreneurship, and calls for a stronger parliamentary role. Respublica, launched in January 2023, focuses on entrepreneurship and economic development, and ran a notably energetic campaign.
Indira Aubakirova, head of the Institute of Legislation and Legal Information, said Adilet's dominance was unsurprising given its use of all available platforms. She expressed surprise at the People's Party's low showing, attributing it to generational change and the natural decline of an older electorate that traditionally supported such parties. On the contest between Ak Zhol and Respublica, she noted that while Ak Zhol has a longer history, Respublica "positioned itself very correctly and built its election campaign in a very competent way."
Voter turnout was reported at 74.19%, with 9.35 million people casting ballots, according to preliminary figures from the Central Election Commission. The relatively high participation suggests continued public engagement despite the limited political choice.
On election day, President Tokayev also announced that Kazakhstan would have its first vice president, a position introduced under the new constitution. He told journalists he would reveal the appointment within seven to ten days, adding another element of political change to a country that has seen significant constitutional restructuring under his leadership.
The Kurultai election is part of a broader effort by Tokayev to reshape Kazakhstan's political system after the unrest of 2022. While the new constitution and the creation of the Kurultai have been presented as steps toward greater pluralism, the overwhelming dominance of Adilet—a party created from the merger of the old ruling party—raises questions about the depth of genuine political competition. For now, the outcome appears set to consolidate power in the hands of the president and his allies, even as the formal structures of governance evolve.
