Latvia has become the latest target in what EU officials describe as a coordinated campaign by Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka to weaponise migration against the bloc's eastern frontier. After years of pressure on Lithuania and Poland, Latvian authorities report a sharp increase in attempted crossings, raising alarm in Riga as the country prepares for parliamentary elections on 3 October.
On a single day last week, Latvia recorded 111 attempted illegal crossings along its 173-kilometre border with Belarus. By contrast, Lithuania—which shares a 679-kilometre border—registered only two attempted crossings that same day, while Poland reported none. Secondary migration from Latvia into Lithuania has also surged fourfold compared with the first half of last year.
“Today Latvia's border has become the main target,” Interior Minister Jānis Dombrava told Euronews. Officials in Riga argue the timing is no coincidence, given Russia's war in Ukraine and Minsk's open support for Moscow. A spokesperson for Latvia's Interior Ministry said the Belarusian regime has “additional motivation to continue hybrid activities, including the instrumentalisation of migration.”
Regional reinforcements and internal debates
In response, Latvia has turned to its Baltic neighbours for support. Lithuania has deployed nine border guards and two service dogs to reinforce patrols, replacing a team that had been stationed there since July. Estonia sent two 12-member Border Guard teams in June. “The Latvian-Belarusian border is both the external border of NATO and the European Union, and thus also our border,” said Veiko Kommusaar, head of Border Guard at Estonia's Police and Border Guard Board.
Despite these efforts, Dombrava acknowledged that resources are not always sufficient to intercept every group of migrants. The State Border Guard is “doing everything possible,” he said, “however, given the intensity of the migration pressure, the resources currently available are not always sufficient.”
The rise in secondary migration has prompted debate in Lithuania about reintroducing temporary controls on its border with Latvia, following Poland's example of checks on travellers from Lithuania and Germany. Lithuania's new Interior Minister, Martynas Katelynas, has not ruled out the measure “if we had no other way to manage the flow and stop migrants at the border,” he told LRT. For now, however, Dombrava said the focus remains on strengthening the EU's external frontier rather than restricting movement within the bloc.
A state-orchestrated operation
Baltic officials insist the migration is not spontaneous but a deliberate operation by Minsk. According to Latvia's Interior Ministry, many migrants arrive in Belarus legally before being transported toward the borders with Latvia, Lithuania, or Poland. Authorities allege that Belarusian security forces escort migrants to the frontier, provide equipment to breach barriers, and sometimes prevent them from returning deeper into Belarus.
“This is not spontaneous migration,” said Lina Laurinaitytė, spokesperson for the Lithuanian State Border Guard Service. “It is a state-organised operation designed to exert political pressure on the European Union.” The nationalities of migrants have shifted over time, including citizens of Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Iran, Yemen, Somalia, Cameroon, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The crisis first erupted in 2021 when Lukashenka threatened to flood neighbouring countries with migrants and drugs. Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland subsequently built border barriers, expanded surveillance, and increased patrols. But Latvian officials now admit those measures alone are insufficient. The situation underscores broader challenges for the EU's eastern border, as UNHCR urges the EU to assess individual cases before returning migrants under the new pact.
As the election campaign heats up, Riga is likely to keep pressing for more EU and NATO support. The Baltic states view the migration pressure as part of a wider hybrid threat from Minsk and Moscow, one that tests the bloc's solidarity and border security. Dutch Minister warns NATO allies failing defence targets will face pressure, highlighting the broader security context.
