Lithuania’s political landscape has shifted once again. The Social Democrats, led by Mindaugas Sinkevičius, have sealed a coalition agreement with the Democrats “For Lithuania”, the Farmers and Greens Union, and the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Christian Families Alliance. This marks the third ruling coalition in just eighteen months for the Baltic state.
“Third time’s the charm,” Sinkevičius told journalists in Vilnius on Thursday, as the parties signed the deal. The new alliance holds 75 of the 141 seats in the Seimas, a slim majority that its members acknowledge will require careful management. “It won’t be easy… this will not be a stroll in the park,” said Virginijus Sinkevičius, interim leader of the Democrats “For Lithuania”.
Defence and Social Security at the Core
The coalition’s programme prioritises defence and social security. The partners have committed to spending no less than 5% of GDP on defence, with a focus on air threat detection, air defence systems, and cybersecurity. This aligns with Lithuania’s broader security concerns given its proximity to Russia and Belarus.
On foreign policy, the agreement includes a pledge to “normalise diplomatic relations with China” to the level maintained by other EU member states. “Poland, Germany, all countries have [diplomatic relations with China], except us,” Sinkevičius noted. “Sometimes we are unique, [but] we come back to the idea that maybe we shouldn’t stand out and shouldn’t be unique.”
The coalition also agreed to resolve internal disputes privately rather than publicly, a move aimed at ensuring stability.
Cabinet Portfolios and Key Figures
Ministerial posts are expected to be announced next week. The Social Democrats, as the largest party in the Seimas, will control nine ministries: environment, finance, defence, culture, social security, transport, education and sport, foreign affairs, and interior. The Democrats “For Lithuania” will lead health, agriculture, and energy. The Farmers and Greens Union, together with their allies, will take economy and justice.
Current Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė will remain in office until the new cabinet is sworn in. Sinkevičius confirmed he is ready to lead the government, adding that Ruginienė would stay “an important member of the team.” Social Democrat Juozas Olekas is expected to continue as Speaker of the Seimas.
Two coalition leaders—Virginijus Sinkevičius and Farmers and Greens Union leader Aurelijus Veryga—are currently members of the European Parliament. Mindaugas Sinkevičius expressed confidence that this would not hinder the coalition’s work.
Populist Dawn of Nemunas Excluded
The reshuffle follows the Social Democrats’ decision to expel the populist Dawn of Nemunas party from the ruling coalition. The party, led by Remigijus Žemaitaitis, has been barred from handling classified information and was found guilty of antisemitic statements. “The party leader may even be becoming more radical,” Sinkevičius said. “We believe that what society needs today is stability, a clear direction, decision-making, and not political noise.”
In 2024, the Social Democrats had formed a coalition with Dawn of Nemunas and the Democrats “For Lithuania”. But after the Democrats “For Lithuania” refused to continue with Žemaitaitis’s party, the Social Democrats initially replaced them with the Farmers and Greens Union and the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania. Now, the Democrats “For Lithuania” have returned, and Dawn of Nemunas is out.
The new government faces the challenge of maintaining cohesion while addressing Lithuania’s pressing security and economic concerns. For now, the coalition’s slim majority leaves little room for error.
