NATO foreign ministers convened in Sweden on Thursday for a two-day summit overshadowed by the Trump administration's plan to reduce the United States' role in European security. The meeting, held in Stockholm, comes at a moment of profound uncertainty for the alliance, as Washington signals it will no longer guarantee support for European defense—even in wartime.
The centerpiece of discussions is the expected announcement on Friday detailing where and how US capabilities will be scaled back. Sources within NATO have confirmed that the plan “does change the US contribution to NATO in the event of crisis or conflict,” though exact parameters remain under wraps. The shift aligns with President Donald Trump's “America First” doctrine, which has long sought to pivot US military focus toward Asia.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte sought to downplay the significance of the move during a press conference in Brussels on Wednesday. “This has been expected,” he said. “We know that adjustments will take place, the US has to pivot toward, for example, Asia.” He added that the changes would occur “over time, in a structured way,” insisting that “the US will stay involved in Europe.”
The adjustment is being negotiated within the NATO force model, the framework that coordinates national forces and overall deterrence and defense needs. Yet the timing is delicate: just weeks ago, Trump abruptly announced the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany after a public feud with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz over the US-Israeli war with Iran. Merz had criticized the conflict as ill-conceived and accused White House negotiators of being “humiliated” by Tehran. In practice, the withdrawal involved canceling the deployment of 4,000 soldiers already en route to Poland, catching Warsaw off guard.
Weapons Depletion and the Ukraine Factor
A second major issue on the agenda is the alliance's ability to ramp up defense production. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, attending the summit, is expected to stress the urgent need for greater industrial output among all allies. The war in Iran has drained US stockpiles of critical munitions, including Patriot air defense systems and advanced ammunition, which are also vital for supporting Ukraine against Russia.
NATO allies purchase complex weapons from the US through the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List to keep Ukrainian forces supplied. However, with the US expending vast quantities of its own reserves in Iran, sources indicate that if the attrition rate continues, Europe will face shortages of valuable munitions deliveries for the Ukrainian army. “The question is no longer whether we need to do more,” Rutte told journalists. “The question is how quickly allies can turn commitments into capabilities.”
This week's ministerial meeting serves as a staging post ahead of the annual NATO leaders' summit, scheduled for July in Ankara. Ministers in Sweden will also deliberate whether to extend a formal invitation to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who attended part of last year's summit at The Hague at the invitation of the King of the Netherlands.
The gathering underscores a broader shift in European security dynamics. As the US steps back, European nations are being forced to confront their own defense shortcomings. Switzerland has already begun ramping up drone capabilities in response to the changing landscape, while former Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that Europe's security assumptions are outdated after the Ukraine invasion. The summit in Stockholm may mark a turning point, but the path ahead remains fraught with challenges.
