A fresh Eurobarometer survey released today paints a sobering picture of economic sentiment across the European Union: nearly one in three citizens (29 percent) expect their personal standard of living to deteriorate over the next five years, while only 18 percent anticipate improvement. The findings, based on responses from over 26,000 people across all 27 member states, underscore a deepening anxiety about inflation and the cost of living that now dominates political discourse from Paris to Warsaw.
Generational and Geographic Divides
The survey reveals sharp generational differences. Among respondents aged 55 and older, 34 percent foresee a decline in their living standards, compared with just 17 percent of those under 25. This gap likely reflects older Europeans' greater reliance on fixed incomes and pensions, which are particularly vulnerable to price rises.
Geographically, pessimism is concentrated in Western Europe. France records the bloc's highest share of negative respondents at 44 percent, followed closely by Portugal, Germany, and Austria. In contrast, Central and Eastern European countries show markedly more optimism: only 9 percent of Poles expect their situation to worsen, while Hungary registers the lowest level of economic pessimism in the entire EU at just 8 percent.
EU Image and Euroscepticism
The survey also hints at a link between economic gloom and perceptions of the European Union. While the EU's overall image remains positive for 50 percent of citizens and negative for 17 percent, the gap narrows significantly in France, Austria, Greece, and Czechia. In France and Austria, only 62 percent of respondents believe their country has benefited from EU membership — the lowest levels in the bloc after Bulgaria (57 percent).
A European Parliament official, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted: “There are several factors to take into account, but economic uncertainty and rising prices could influence the way the EU is perceived.” When asked whether the erosion of purchasing power is fueling support for eurosceptic parties such as the Rassemblement National in France or the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs in Austria, the official acknowledged the connection without directly attributing it.
Inflation Tops the Agenda
The overall negative outlook is accompanied by a surge in concern about “inflation, rising prices and the cost of living,” which now ranks as the top issue citizens want the European Parliament to address. Some 47 percent of EU respondents cited this as their primary concern — a six-percentage-point increase from the previous survey, when it was already in first place. The next most pressing issues are “economy and job creation” and “EU defence and security.”
These findings come as the European Central Bank continues to grapple with inflation that, while easing from its 2022 peak, remains above the 2 percent target in many member states. The survey also highlights a broader disconnect between macroeconomic indicators and household perceptions: despite low unemployment in much of the EU, many citizens feel their purchasing power is shrinking.
The data underscores a challenge for EU institutions as they prepare for the 2024 European Parliament elections. While the bloc has made progress on digital sovereignty and climate goals, as explored in our analysis of Europe's investment gap, the daily economic pressures on ordinary Europeans risk eroding support for the European project.
In a separate development, Portugal has issued a red alert for Lisbon and three other districts as an extreme heatwave persists, adding environmental stress to the economic anxieties captured in the Eurobarometer. Meanwhile, a recent study found that one in three EU residents live in homes with spare rooms, highlighting the paradox of underused housing stock amid a continent-wide affordability crisis.
The Eurobarometer survey was conducted between October and November 2023, with fieldwork carried out face-to-face and online. The margin of error is approximately 1.5 percentage points at the EU level.
