On Tuesday at 13:30, the Paris Court of Appeal will deliver a verdict that could reshape France's political landscape ahead of the 2027 presidential election. At stake is Marine Le Pen's five-year ban from holding public office, imposed in March 2025 after she was convicted of embezzling European Parliament funds. If the court upholds the ban, Le Pen's long-held presidential ambitions would effectively be over, clearing the path for Jordan Bardella, the 30-year-old president of the National Rally (RN), to become the party's standard-bearer.
Le Pen, 57, has run for the presidency three times and remains a formidable force, polling at 32% in the first round. Yet Bardella, a Member of the European Parliament, now polls between 35% and 37%, according to an Ifop-Fiducial survey released last month. The party has carefully managed this transition, promoting Bardella as a credible contender without overshadowing Le Pen, who remains the "natural" candidate for many supporters. Le Pen and Bardella have presented a united front in recent weeks, but the ideological differences are subtle: Le Pen insists she is "neither right-wing nor left-wing," while Bardella openly aligns with "right-wing voters."
The Verdict and Its Implications
The appeal stems from a March 2025 ruling by a Paris criminal court, which found that Le Pen's party—then the National Front, now the National Rally—diverted European Parliament funds between 2004 and 2016. The court determined that parliamentary assistants were effectively working for the party rather than performing duties for MEPs. Le Pen received a four-year prison sentence (two suspended, two under electronic monitoring), a €100,000 fine, and a five-year ban from public office, effective immediately. She has defended the practice as a legitimate "pooling" of assistants and maintains she acted in "good faith," saying she "never felt [she] had committed an offence."
If the appeals court upholds the ban, Le Pen cannot run in 2027. To remain eligible, her ineligibility period would need to be reduced to two years or less. Having already served 15 months since the conviction, she would become eligible again on 31 March 2027—just over two weeks before the first round. Some legal experts argue that such a reduction would amount to preferential treatment compared with others convicted of similar offences. Alternatively, the court could acquit her, though even her most optimistic supporters consider that unlikely.
Even if barred from standing, Le Pen has ruled out seeking the post of prime minister but says she would campaign alongside Bardella. She has pledged to support him "every day," "with great energy," and "with great conviction and confidence." French media report that if the ban is upheld, Bardella could announce his candidacy within days. The RN wants its presidential plans settled quickly, and Bardella's relative youth and fresh appeal may help the party broaden its base. However, he lacks Le Pen's political experience—she led the party from 2011 to 2022—and the party must balance promoting him without alienating her loyalists.
Le Pen is scheduled to appear on TF1's 8pm news bulletin after the verdict. The ruling will not only determine her future but also test the resilience of France's far-right movement, which has steadily gained ground in recent years. The outcome will be closely watched across Europe, as a Bardella candidacy could signal a generational shift in French politics. For now, all eyes are on the Paris Court of Appeal.
