Quebec's separatist Parti Québécois (PQ) secured a victory in Monday's provincial election, but without the majority it had hoped for, leaving its promise of another independence referendum in a precarious position. The party, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, is set to take power for the first time in over a decade, yet it will need support from opposition lawmakers to govern and advance its agenda.
With nearly all votes counted, the PQ was projected to win close to 60 seats in the 127-member National Assembly, short of the 64 required for a majority. This outcome forces the party into a minority government, where it must negotiate with other parties to pass legislation and survive confidence votes.
St-Pierre Plamondon acknowledged the voters' message, stating, "Quebecers elected the Parti Québécois asking it to work with the other parties, and I heard that message." He has reiterated his commitment to holding a referendum on independence, though he has indicated he would wait until after Donald Trump leaves the White House.
The PQ leader framed sovereignty as essential to preserving Quebec's French-speaking identity, calling it a "question of survival" for a community that is a small minority in North America. "Quebec just wants to exist on its own like other countries of the world," he said, adding that a referendum would let locals decide their future. "I continue to dream and visualise that country," he declared in his victory speech. "That dream will be realised one day."
He also sought to reassure Canadians outside Quebec, saying, "The project for independence is not about excluding you. Quebec will never change its geographical position, so we have an interest in working together."
A vote against the incumbent, not for independence
The election was widely seen as a rebuke of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which had governed since 2018. CAQ leader Christine Fréchette conceded defeat, taking responsibility for the "difficult result." The CAQ, which held 79 seats before the election, was at risk of losing all of them.
Political analysts caution that the PQ's victory does not reflect a surge in separatist sentiment. "This was not an election about independence, which is not popular in Quebec right now, but about getting rid of the CAQ," said Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal. Support for independence remains at about 30%, low by historical standards, he noted.
The minority result is likely welcome news for Prime Minister Mark Carney's government in Ottawa, as it could make it harder for the PQ to prepare for and eventually call a referendum. Carney congratulated St-Pierre Plamondon and signalled a willingness to cooperate with the incoming government. "Building a stronger Québec is core to our mission of building a stronger Canada," Carney said, pledging to work together on supporting businesses and workers affected by US tariffs, creating jobs, and building housing.
The Quebec vote comes two weeks before Albertans head to the polls on October 19 to decide whether to hold a referendum on separation from Canada, a potential threat to Carney's government. Quebec voters have twice rejected sovereignty, most recently by a razor-thin margin in 1995. The province, which is about 80% French-speaking, already enjoys significant autonomy, including collecting its own income taxes from its roughly 9.1 million residents, having immigration policies that favour French speakers, and enforcing laws that prioritize French over English.
As the PQ prepares to form a minority government, the path to independence remains uncertain. The party will need to navigate a fragmented legislature and a public that remains sceptical of separation, even as it seeks to revive a debate that has defined Quebec politics for decades.
