The tentative agreement between the United States and Iran to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has been met with caution by the global shipping industry, which warns that restoring normal navigation will take weeks or months. The deal, unveiled at the G7 summit in Évian and due to be formally adopted on Friday in Switzerland, sets a 60-day timeline for the waterway to fully reopen. But shipping executives and analysts stress that the recovery will be uneven and fraught with operational hurdles.
Under the terms published on Wednesday, Washington will lift its naval blockade, while Tehran commits to using “its best efforts” to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels without imposing fees during the 60-day period. Talks on Iran’s nuclear programme are to continue in parallel. The Strait could reopen around 19 June, but energy intelligence firm Kpler warns that investors expecting a swift return to normal should prepare for a much slower and more uneven recovery. “Expect the recovery to come in steps, not a straight line, with meaningful divergence across countries and products well into 2027,” reads a Kpler analysis.
Restoring Confidence After Months of Paralysis
After more than three months of near-total paralysis of maritime activity in the strait—a period that drove global energy prices higher and fuelled social instability—shipping leaders agree that a simple political accord is insufficient. Jotaro Tamura, CEO of Mitsui OSK Lines, said that “just a simple agreement” between the US and Iran will not restore the confidence destroyed by the conflict. “Given the recent experiences in the last couple of months, I think it’s reasonable to assume that it may take at least a couple of weeks or if not a month,” Tamura added. He stressed that the deal must be “material and translated into the real situations” in the Strait of Hormuz to reassure shipping lines.
Arsenio Dominguez, secretary-general of the International Maritime Organisation, welcomed the agreement as an opportunity to advance plans to evacuate thousands of seafarers stranded in the area. “Their courage and resilience in the face of prolonged uncertainty deserve the highest recognition,” Dominguez said. More than 100 laden oil tankers currently trapped inside the Gulf are expected to rush through the waterway once passage is deemed safe, but Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc cautioned that normal shipping activity will have to wait until a survey of the strait detects sea mines and maps safe routes. “We don’t know where there will be obstacles to navigation, especially given the volumes we expect and the sizes of our ships,” Clerc said, noting that it could take “a few weeks” for the full reality to become clear.
A spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd was more upbeat: “After more than 15 weeks of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, this is good news for us, for our crews, and for our customers. We hope that all remaining vessels will be able to cross the street of Hormuz still this week and await further information.” Roughly 118 laden tankers are ready to leave within 10–15 days, delivering an early spike in transits. But energy analysts warn that progress will be gradual, with transits building from about 15 to 40 a day over the first month as the question of Iranian influence is settled.
Who Will Call the Shots?
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Wednesday that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will be restored to normal within a specific time window, but that Iran alone will conduct and manage the process. “This is our own task, and we alone will do it, and there will be no need for participation or intervention from other parties,” Baghaei stated. Yet western nations have also been laying out plans to send vessels to escort ships in Hormuz. A joint statement backed by 36 countries on the sidelines of the G7 hailed the “urgent re-opening” of the Strait of Hormuz with “unconditional and unrestricted freedom of navigation,” even as uncertainty remains over whether Iran will impose a toll. The statement, whose signatories include 22 EU countries, as well as Canada, Japan and Australia, commits to a “strictly defensive and independent mission to reassure commercial shipping and conduct mine clearance operations.”
The German government said on Wednesday evening that it is preparing for its armed forces to potentially take part in such a mission. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed on Thursday that two naval vessels are already transiting the Suez Canal for a possible mine-clearing operation. “As we speak, our minehunter ‘Fulda’ and the tender ‘Mosel’ are transiting the Suez Canal towards the Red Sea,” Pistorius said ahead of a meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels. “We want to be able to act quickly when required and when it becomes a reality, and above all, to be in the Strait of Hormuz as quickly as possible.”
The cautious tone from shipping executives underscores the deep scars left by the prolonged closure. Even as political leaders celebrate the framework, the practicalities of demining, insurance, and Iranian control mean that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal overnight. For European consumers and businesses already grappling with high energy costs, the recovery—when it comes—will be measured in months, not days.
