Across Latin America, a wave of right-wing leaders is reshaping the political landscape, drawing inspiration from a familiar source: Donald Trump. From the battle-hardened Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil to the meteoric rise of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, these figures share nationalist rhetoric, unabashed populism, and a clear role model. The latest chapters unfold in Colombia and Peru, where Abelardo de la Espriella and Keiko Fujimori are poised to end two of the region's remaining left-wing governments.
Colombia's New Sheriff
In Colombia, the 47-year-old lawyer and businessman Abelardo de la Espriella, a political novice, won the presidency by a razor-thin margin of barely 200,000 votes against left-wing senator Iván Cepeda. On 6 August, he will replace Gustavo Petro, an icon of the Colombian left and one of Trump's most vocal critics. De la Espriella, by contrast, enjoys an excellent relationship with the US president, who backed him throughout the campaign and celebrated his victory on social media with a terse message: "He won, big!" US Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed the sentiment, stating, "The Trump administration looks forward to working closely with your incoming administration to boost regional security cooperation, put an end to illegal immigration to the United States and strengthen our economic ties."
For European observers, this shift is significant. Colombia, a key partner for the EU in trade and environmental policy—particularly regarding the Amazon—now aligns more closely with Washington's agenda. The change could affect European efforts to combat deforestation and promote sustainable development in the region.
Peru's Fujimori Returns
In Peru, Keiko Fujimori, leader of the Fuerza Popular party, is ahead in the vote count against Roberto Sánchez after a campaign centered on a tough stance on crime and irregular migration. This is her fourth attempt at the presidency, a post also held by her father, Alberto Fujimori, before his imprisonment for corruption and crimes against humanity. Fujimori has pledged to move closer to Washington, stating in April, "My role, if elected president, will be to encourage the United States to become more actively involved again."
Peru's political instability has long concerned European investors and diplomats. A Fujimori presidency could mean a more predictable, if controversial, partner for trade and security cooperation, particularly in the fight against drug trafficking.
The Trumpist Affinity: Bolsonaro, Bukele, and Milei
These victories are part of a broader trend that began in 2019 with Bukele and Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro's parallels with Trump were striking: both opposed vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic, eased gun access, and faced similar uprisings—Bolsonaro allegedly orchestrated the 2023 Brasília riots, mirroring the 2021 Capitol attack. He is now serving a sentence for his role, and Trump even threatened Brazil with a 50% tariff unless the case was dropped.
Bukele's policies, including a nationwide state of emergency to combat gangs, earned him Trump's praise. The US president described him as a "great ally" and one of his "favourite people." Bukele's homicide rate dropped from 108 per 100,000 in 2015 to eight in 2022, according to World Bank data, a record that Trump often cites.
Argentina's Javier Milei, a former television personality, shares a close personal relationship with Trump. His domestic policies, symbolized by a chainsaw used to slash the civil service, have been adopted by Elon Musk in Washington. The US administration even prepared a €17 billion financial rescue package for Argentina, contingent on Milei's party winning legislative elections.
For Europe, this rightward shift poses challenges. The EU's trade agreements with Mercosur, for instance, face uncertainty as leaders like Milei prioritize bilateral deals with the US. Moreover, the populist rhetoric of these leaders often clashes with European values on human rights and environmental protection. As the region tilts right, Brussels must navigate a more fragmented and unpredictable Latin America.
