The Trump administration has begun drafting a post-war strategy for the Middle East, with the aim of reshaping the region's balance of power by tightening pressure on Tehran and expanding normalisation between Israel and its neighbours, according to a report by Axios citing two US officials and two other sources familiar with the matter.
The plan, still in its formative stages, could define US policy towards the Middle East for the remainder of President Donald Trump's time in office, the US outlet reported. The unnamed sources outlined three core pillars under discussion: building a "regional alignment" among US allies to deter and constrain Iran, addressing the regional consequences of the 7 October 2023 attacks on Israel, and broadening the Abraham Accords while pursuing a normalisation deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Discussions are likely to be influenced by the upcoming US midterm elections and Israel's legislative elections in October. Among the ideas floated are the US acting as a guarantor for the regional alignment, negotiating a security agreement between Israel and Syria, and implementing the next phase of Trump's Gaza plan.
Regional alignment and Iran
The regional alignment concept is not a radical departure from decades of US policy. Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, successive administrations have sought to curb Tehran's influence by strengthening ties with Gulf states. However, Washington may now aim to formalise these efforts into a more structured framework, including closer defence and security coordination among allies, against what it perceives as a shifting regional balance of power amid the ongoing Iran war.
This approach echoes broader geopolitical trends, including the growing importance of the Middle Corridor as a trade route linking Asia and Europe, which adds another layer of strategic competition in the region.
Israel-Saudi normalisation and the Abraham Accords
A key goal is a normalisation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, a long-standing US ambition that has stalled because Riyadh insists on tangible progress towards resolving the Gaza situation and creating a Palestinian state. The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020 under Trump's first administration, normalised relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Washington has since sought to widen this circle, viewing the accords as a tool to reshape regional alliances and reduce Iranian influence.
Addressing regional fallout
The second pillar focuses on mitigating the regional repercussions of the Hamas-led attack on 7 October and the subsequent war in Gaza. This could involve three main actions: moving to the next phase of Trump's Gaza plan, which reportedly includes reconstruction arrangements, disarmament of Hamas, and a transitional administration; pursuing a security agreement between Israel and Syria, amid the sweeping changes since Bashar al-Assad's fall in late 2024; and implementing an agreement between Israel and Lebanon to limit Hezbollah's military capabilities, building on the 2024 ceasefire that required Hezbollah fighters to withdraw north of the Litani River and the Lebanese army to deploy in the south.
Israel has accused Hezbollah of trying to rebuild its military strength, while Lebanon continues to report Israeli air strikes on its territory. These dynamics are part of a volatile regional landscape, as seen in recent Israeli airstrikes in Gaza City that killed at least five people, according to medics.
For Europe, the stability of the Middle East has direct implications for migration flows, energy security, and trade routes. The EU has repeatedly called for de-escalation and a two-state solution, but its influence remains limited compared to Washington's. The plan's outcome could affect European diplomatic efforts and security cooperation with Gulf states and Israel.
One source told Axios that the plan has not yet fully come together, and a final version has yet to take shape. The coming months will be critical as the administration navigates domestic political pressures and regional complexities.
