Polling stations across Armenia closed at 20:00 local time on Sunday, and official vote counting has begun in what observers describe as the most consequential election for the South Caucasus country in decades. The vote pits Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's pro-Western Civil Contract party against a coalition of opposition forces that advocate closer ties with Moscow.
Turnout for this election was higher than in the 2021 snap poll but fell short of levels seen in 2012 and 2017, according to preliminary data from Armenia's Central Electoral Commission. The final figure is expected later on Monday.
Pashinyan, who came to power in 2018 after the Velvet Revolution, posted a video on social media shortly after polls closed, telling supporters: “Good evening, and I love you all.” The message reflected his confidence in securing a second full term, buoyed by his government's success in finalising a historic peace agreement with Azerbaijan last year.
That deal, which ended decades of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, has reshaped Armenia's foreign policy. Yerevan has increasingly pivoted toward the European Union and the United States, a shift that has alarmed the Kremlin. Russia has warned Armenia of a “Ukraine scenario” if it continues to distance itself from Moscow.
The pro-Russian opposition, however, claims momentum is on its side. Narek Karapetyan, a relative of Russian-Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan and a leader of the Strong Armenia party, said from house arrest that the “historically high turnout shows us that Pashinyan is losing.” Karapetyan is currently under house arrest on charges his supporters say are politically motivated.
European Stakes in the Caucasus
The election is being closely watched in Brussels and other European capitals. The EU recently unveiled a support package for Armenia, signalling its desire to deepen ties with the country. The bloc has also mediated talks between Yerevan and Baku, and European diplomats view Armenia as a potential counterweight to Russian influence in the South Caucasus.
Pashinyan's cautious pro-West pivot has been met with a mix of encouragement and wariness. While the EU and US have offered economic and security assistance, they have stopped short of promising NATO membership or a formal security guarantee. The prime minister has walked a fine line, maintaining diplomatic channels with Moscow even as he pursues closer integration with Europe.
“This election is not just about Armenia's future, but about the balance of power in a region where Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the EU all have competing interests,” said a senior European diplomat based in Yerevan, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The outcome will also have implications for the wider South Caucasus, including Georgia and Azerbaijan. A victory for Pashinyan could accelerate Armenia's integration with European institutions, while a win for the pro-Russian opposition might reverse the peace process with Baku and deepen Armenia's isolation.
As counting continues, both sides have urged caution over unofficial exit polls circulating on social media. The Central Electoral Commission has warned that early projections may be unreliable and called on parties to refrain from declaring victory prematurely.
Armenia's election comes amid broader geopolitical turbulence, including the war in Ukraine and heightened tensions in the Middle East. The country's strategic location, bordering Turkey, Iran, and Azerbaijan, makes it a key node in the contest between Western and Russian influence.
For now, Armenians are waiting for the official results, which are expected within 24 hours. The next government will face immediate challenges: managing a fragile economy, securing the peace with Azerbaijan, and navigating the competing pressures of Moscow and Brussels.
