For the first time since the European Parliament's creation, the centrist coalition that has long dominated its politics may no longer command a majority. According to a projection released on Wednesday by Europe Elects, an election data platform, the centre-right European People's Party (EPP), the centrist Renew Europe, and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) are set to fall short of the 353 seats needed for a majority.
The projection, based on voting intentions in each EU member state and modelled seat allocations under national electoral laws, marks a symbolic milestone. It underscores a broader trend: the mainstream parties that have shaped European politics since the Second World War are losing ground to forces on the right and the anti-establishment left.
Shifting balance in the chamber
The 2024 European elections already shifted the parliament's centre of gravity to the right, with right-of-centre parties gaining nearly 60 MEPs, largely driven by far-right, conservative, and national-populist movements. The new projection suggests that trend is continuing.
Among the centrist groups, the S&D would suffer the biggest losses, shedding 18 MEPs, followed by the EPP with 15 and Renew with nine. The Greens/European Free Alliance, which has often propped up the centrist majority in the current term, would lose 14 seats, shrinking further.
Meanwhile, the hard-right Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) group, which includes Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) — currently projected as the leading German party — would gain 19 seats. The far-left group The Left is also projected to gain 19 seats, driven largely by leftist parties in France and Germany, a sign that anti-establishment sentiment is not confined to the right.
Still, most of the projected gains sit on the right. Patriots for Europe (PfE), which includes Marine Le Pen's National Rally, is set to gain 12 seats, boosted by Spain's Vox and Austria's Freedom Party. The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), dominated by Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy, would remain largely stable, adding three MEPs.
Group dynamics and internal shifts
The overall hierarchy of political groups would largely hold: the EPP would remain the largest, followed by the S&D, PfE, ECR, and Renew. But the gap between the two main centrist forces and the largest right-wing group would narrow sharply, and Renew's position would be increasingly challenged by The Left.
The Greens/EFA group would slip behind The Left and the far-right ESN, becoming the smallest group in the parliament — even as its votes become more pivotal than ever, since centrist parties would need the Greens more than at any point to form a majority.
One of the most significant shifts would occur within the EPP itself. Spain's Popular Party and Poland's Civic Platform would become the largest national delegations, ending the German Christian Democratic Union's decade-long dominance of the group. At the same time, the EPP would likely strengthen its position further, retaining the ability to form an alternative majority with right-wing parties — a source of significant leverage in day-to-day negotiations.
The ECR's standing could also be bolstered, having already gained significant institutional roles and legislative influence in the current term, potentially becoming more mainstream in the next.
Political trends and implications
According to Tobias Gerhard Schminke, director of Europe Elects, the latest projections confirm several trends that have defined the EU's electoral landscape in recent years.
"The first one that's often overlooked is that we see a fragmentation in the political system. So the EPP has about 21% support now in Europe. So, it will require a lot of political families to come together to form a majority," Gerhard Schminke told Euronews.
He also pointed to eroding support for the political centre, part of a broader decline in consensus around liberal democracy, human rights, and cooperation between European states within the EU framework.
Another trend he noted is that within the radical-right camp, forces like Meloni's Brothers of Italy and Le Pen's National Rally have reached a plateau, while most growth is coming from the more extreme forces gathered under the ESN umbrella.
The next European Parliament elections are not due until June 2029, and three years is a long time in politics. Parliamentary groups can also shift before or after elections, which inevitably affects the distribution of power in the chamber.
Still, if these trends hold through the next elections, they would further test the EU's unwritten cordon sanitaire: the agreement among mainstream parties to keep extremist forces from power. The coming years will show whether that informal barrier can withstand the pressure of a changing electorate.
